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December 19, 2024
The budget execution in the third quarter increases the likelihood of reducing the public deficit by half a percentage point of GDP in 2024 to 3.0%. Fiscal adjustment in 2025 and 2026 will depend on the implementation of the new fiscal rules and the effectiveness of tax measures.
December 18, 2024
The GDP growth for 2023 published today by the INE is consistent with the scenario published by BBVA Research, which anticipated that the leadership would be located in the island regions. However, forecast errors were higher in some regions, such as La Rioja, Madrid, Catalonia and Aragon.
December 5, 2024
One month after DANA (week from November 26 to December 2), the majority of indicators in the province of Valencia show a similar evolution to that observed in the rest of Spain, highlighting the acceleration shown in spending by foreigners, car registrations and the most affected municipalities.
December 5, 2024
GDP growth in 2024 has been revised upward by 0.2 percentage points, reaching 3.1%, driven by stronger-than-expected performance in the third quarter and a slight acceleration in job creation in the fourth. Growth is projected at 2.3% in 2025 and could settle at 1.7% in 2026.
December 3, 2024
Social Security affiliation dropped by 30,100, while unemployment decreased by 16,000. Adjusted for seasonality, contributors increased by 26,000, and the unemployed fell by 4,600. Preliminary data does not indicate a significant rise in workers affected by furlough schemes (ERTE) following the DANA.
November 29, 2024
Spending in the province of Valencia rebounded during the week of November 19 to 25. The growth differential with the rest of Spain became positive in most indicators, although the most affected municipalities still show significant falls.
November 22, 2024
During the week of November 12 to 18, the improvement trend in most spending indicators stopped. Growth rates have shown a similar behavior to that of the previous week, maintaining a negative gap with respect to the evolution observed in the rest of Spain.
November 18, 2024
Although it has been only a few days and we only have preliminary estimates, the data that we are receiving indicate that the economic effects of the DANA have been very significant at a local level.
November 15, 2024
Most indicators show an improvement in economic activity in Valencia during the week of November 5 to 11, although both the growth rates and, more importantly, the levels remain below what would have been observed without the DANA, particularly in the hardest-hit municipalities, where significant impacts are still evident.
