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This Working Paper analyzes the settlement payment for 2022 under the common system of autonomous communities financing, recently published by the Ministry of Finance.
The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 47.2% of GDP at the end of the first semester. We anticipate that this balance will be 50.8% by year-end.
Tax revenue was MXN 8,922 million (0.03% of GDP) below budget since the excise taxes on fuels intake was below budget despite its real annual increment of 195.1% in 1Q24.
Downward revision to our 2024 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth estimate to 2.5% (2.9% previously), with lower dynamism of domestic demand.
Public revenue in 2023 was MXN 84,326 million (0.27% of GDP) below budget due to lower oil-related income as international prices of a crude oil barrel went down.
Given that one of the most relevant factors for the dynamism of the external motor of the Mexican economy will be the unfolding of interest rates in the US, the possibility of more inflationary persistence in that country could decelerate the external motor more than anticipated.
Upward revision to our 2023 real GDP growth estimate to 3.4% (3.2% previously); we anticipate a 2.9% growth rate for 2024 (2.6% previously). The GDP growth rate for next year would be below the corresponding figure of 2023 due to a lower external stimulus.
Public revenue in the first semester was MXN 157,650 million (0.5% of GDP) below budget due to lower oil-related income as international prices of a crude oil barrel went down.
Upward revision to our 2023 real GDP growth estimate to 3.2% (2.4% previously); we anticipate a 2.6% growth rate for 2024 (1.8% previously).
The 2024 Economic Package was built with realistic macroeconomic assumptions. The fiscal equilibrium will be maintained in spite of such package setting a target of -1.2% of GDP for next year’s primary balance.
The next federal government will face a strong pressure on its public finances derived from current spending, pensions and the needs of higher physical investment.
Public revenue in the first semester was MXN 189,558 million (0.6% of GDP) below budget due to lower oil-related income as international prices of a crude oil barrel went down.
