Public Finance

The economy of La Rioja will maintain solid growth. GDP would grow by 1.8% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, supported by employment, consumption, and investment, but conditioned by industrial weakness, exports, and a more adverse external environment.

The 2027 economic package projects a gradual fiscal consolidation with a wide deficit of -3.9% of GDP. Despite fiscal prudence, challenges remain due to low tax collection and spending rigidity. Seeking revenue growth without a comprehensive reform limits fiscal space for more public investment.

The Recovery Plan has injected significant funds and appears to be having a certain redistributive impact across regions. However, it faces risks of under-execution, and its completion may reduce investment, alongside persistent doubts regarding its impact on productivity.

This working paper analyzes the financing system for singular competencies in Spain, which generates disparate valuations and equity problems between territories. The problem is illustrated with 2023 data, and suggestions are proposed to eliminate inconsistencies and improve the system's transparency.

Building on the analysis initiated in a previous study, the Working Paper describes and assesses the new elements of the Government’s proposal to reform the SFA contained in the draft agreement sent to the Autonomous Communities several weeks ago.

Spain is beginning a new defense investment cycle to reach 2% of GDP amid the geopolitical context. Using Big Data and AI, real-time spending is analyzed, overcoming lags in official sources and confirming a structural increase and widespread modernization in the sector.

The geopolitical context has driven Spain to enter an expansionary cycle and reach the defense spending target of 2% of GDP in 2025. A structural change aimed at military modernization through major programs is observed, with a central role for the domestic industry and greater European cooperation.