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January 3, 2025
Consumer prices rose by %1.03 m/m in December, lower than consensus and our expectations (both at 1.6%), leading year-end annual inflation to reach 44.4%. We maintain our year-end 2025 inflation forecasts of 26.5% on a more balanced risk outlook.
December 26, 2024
The Central Bank (CBRT) lowered the policy rate by 250bps to 47.5%, beating the market expectations of 150-200bps cut (vs. our 100bps cut call), but with a narrowed down symmetric interest rate corridor of 150bps from 300bps. The distribution of the meeting dates will be key to see how the real rates will evolve.
December 26, 2024
With Christmas and the start of the new year nearly upon us, it is always good to look back and review what has happened over the last 12 months. My goal here is to do a mea culpa on where we got things wrong when we laid out our economic scenario a year ago.
December 23, 2024
The Senate of the Republic approved a resolution mandating that minimum wages be adjusted annually, at least in line with inflation, to prevent the loss of purchasing power and benefit low-income workers.
December 23, 2024
Activity returned to strong growth in the third quarter (0.8% YoY), driven by domestic demand. Consumption offset the sluggishness of investment and net external demand, which made a negative contribution to growth. GDP growth was driven by productivity, as hours worked grew by only 0.2%.
December 23, 2024
With 30 editions already published, the BBVA Regional Economic Yearbook is the most detailed and complete report on the economy of the regions of Catalonia. Online access through a digital portal is a new feature this year. The increase in Catalonia’s GVA in 2023 (2.9%) has already brought it back to pre-pandemic levels.
December 23, 2024
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered an unprecedented disruption in economic activity in Spain. Although the recovery has returned to previous patterns in many respects, a detailed analysis of Spain's GDP and components reveals a more complex picture.
December 20, 2024
The Board of Banrep reduced its monetary policy rate by 25 bps, bringing it to 9.50%. This decision was split: 5 members in favor of the 25 bp reduction, one in favor of a 50 bp reduction and one in favor of a 75 bp reduction. This is an important change in the Board's stance, after 6 meetings with rate cuts of 50bp.
December 16, 2024
Both Mario Draghi in Europe and Donald Trump in the United States support the increase in tariffs on Chinese imports, but with objectives that seem to reflect different historical conceptions of the wealth of nations.
December 13, 2024
In 2023, Colombia hosted 6.1 million international tourists and robust domestic tourism, contributing 2.3% to GDP. By 2026, over 7 million visitors are projected. Despite challenges in infrastructure, security, and sustainability, the sector shows remarkable potential.
