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December 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by %2.24 m/m in November, higher than consensus (2.0%), with no improvement in the underlying inflation trend. Considering November realizations, we evaluate annual consumer inflation is likely to finish the year at around 45% and decline to 26.5% in 2025 on our assumption of an effective policy mix.
December 2, 2024
We expect US protectionism to fuel uncertainty, and pressure global growth downwards and inflation upwards. In Türkiye, soft landing efforts remain on growth and employment outlook, increasing the downside risks on public spending cuts. Monetary policy communication becomes less hawkish and signals an easing cycle soon.
November 29, 2024
Despite the challenges facing the sector, products like palm oil hold significant potential, not only due to their high productivity and capacity to drive development but also because Colombia possesses substantial advantages for its production.
November 29, 2024
Turkish economy experienced a mild recession, in line with our expectations, contracting by 0.2% q/q in 3Q24 (vs. -0.2% q/q in 2Q24) and posting 2.1 y/y growth. Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts point to a weak quarterly GDP growth for 4Q24, which could result nearly 3% y/y in 2024.
November 29, 2024
Spending in the province of Valencia rebounded during the week of November 19 to 25. The growth differential with the rest of Spain became positive in most indicators, although the most affected municipalities still show significant falls.
November 28, 2024
We keep our GDP growth forecast for 2024 unchanged at 1.2%, and 1.0% for 2025; the favorable impact of economic activity in 2H24 is offset by lower exports and investment in the face of new tariffs next year.
November 28, 2024
The country benefits from strategic location and high productivity, enabling exponential growth of this crop over recent decades. As the world's fourth-largest producer and the leading producer in the Americas, Colombia's potential paves the way for consolidation in new markets.
November 26, 2024
The current account surplus in the third quarter of 2024 was lower than the corresponding figure for the same period of 2023 mainly due to the deficit in the balance on non-oil related goods.
November 25, 2024
Observing the performance of the economy in real time and at high granularity is vital to quickly measure the economic impact of an exceptional event such as the recent DANA that has left a lasting impact in our country, especially in Valencia.
November 22, 2024
Poverty in LATAM represents a complex and diverse challenge. On average, monetary poverty affects 37% of the population in Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. A Multidimensional Poverty Index constructed for these countries identifies key deprivations linked to health coverage, economic dependency, and education.
