Macroeconomic Analysis
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February 3, 2025
Peru | The price level begins the year with a decline and surprises the market
The consumer price index contracted 0.09% m/m in January. The result for the month is mainly explained by the seasonal normalization after the end of the year holidays (price of poultry products and transportation rates). The interannual inflation rate was 1.9% in January.
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February 3, 2025
Türkiye | Upward CPI surprise led by core prices
Consumer inflation climbed up to 5.03% m/m, higher than consensus and our expectation (both at 4.3%), while annual inflation declined further to 42.12% on favorable base effects. We maintain our year-end 2025 inflation forecasts of 26.5%, despite the existence of more pronounced upward inflationary risks.
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February 2, 2025
Mexico | 25% tariffs on Mexico: unlikely to be long-lasting
On February 1, the White House announced that it would impose tariffs of 25% on imports (not all imports, which leaves open the question of whether they will be selective) on Mexico and Canada and 10% on China (in addition to those already faced).
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January 29, 2025
Spain | GDP grew by 0.8% q/q in 4Q24, closing 2024 with a 3.2% expansion
Activity grew again by 0.8% q/q in 4Q24, driven by domestic demand despite weak net external demand. GDP growth was supported by an increase in hours worked, as productivity declined. Overall, GDP expanded by 3.2% in 2024, exceeding forecasts.
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January 28, 2025
US | Labor and Immigration Upheaval: Worker Shortages, Higher Wages?
Notwithstanding BBVA Research's assessment that widespread deportations are improbable and that significant deviations in migration trends —beyond those tied to economic cycles and labor demand— are unlikely, a chilling effect could nonetheless materialize.
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January 27, 2025
Spain | Budgets, what budgets?
There are currently seven autonomous regions of Spain without a budget (rolled over), in territories where the population represents 43% of the total in Spain. In addition, the central government is still working with the 2023 budget.
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January 24, 2025
Colombia | Remittances Matter, and They Matter a Lot for Latin America
Remittances sent by Latin Americans from abroad are becoming more significant, accounting for 2.3% of the GDP of Latin America and the Caribbean. In 2024, these flows reached $160.9 billion, increasing $7.7 billion compared to 2023. Remittances affect the well-being of their recipients and reflect migration dynamics.
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January 23, 2025
Mexico | Slow manufacturing momentum in December; potential risks from tariffs
The BBVA Research Multidimensional Manufacturing Indicator fell (-)3.3% YoY in December, the ninth consecutive decline since April; considering the December data, the year-on-year change averages (-)2.6% in 2024, 2.7 pp below the figure observed the previous year.
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January 23, 2025
Türkiye | CBRT cut policy rate by another 250bps
The Central Bank (CBRT) lowered the policy rate by another rate cut of 250 bps to 45%, in line with market and our expectations. The bank also signaled that it may introduce new tools to sterilize the increasing excess TL liquidity in the market.
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