Macroeconomic Analysis
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January 20, 2025
Spain | Spain - U.S. trade relations in the face of possible tariff increases
The direct impact on the Spanish economy of a possible increase in tariffs on U.S. imports is expected to be limited, given the relatively lower trade exposure with respect to the rest of the Eurozone countries. However, there are regions, sectors and companies that may be particularly affected.
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January 20, 2025
Spain | Inequality, growth, and zero-sum thinking
Economic growth, inequality, and zero-sum thinking form a triangle that has shaped societies over the years. The historical transition from a subsistence economy to one of sustained growth has transformed social perceptions of wealth and how it is distributed.
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January 17, 2025
Türkiye | Recovery signals in 4Q24
Incoming hard data points to a faster recovery in 4Q24 than our previous stagnant growth expectation on quarterly basis. We expect the GDP growth to reach around 3% in 2024 but acknowledge some upside risks recently emerge on our 2025 growth forecast of 2.5%.
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January 15, 2025
Peru | GDP growth accelerated in November and positively surprised
Activity advanced 3.9% year-on-year in November. By productive sectors, the primary component stood out, and within this the growth of the fishing sector stands out, which is due to the greater extraction of anchovy. This also had a significant positive impact on primary manufacturing, which processes this resource.
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January 14, 2025
Argentina | Inflation recorded 2.7% MoM in December and an annual rate of 117.8% for 2024
This aligns with market expectations, as outlined by BBVA (2.8%) and REM-BCRA (2.7%), and reflects a slight increase from November's rate of 2.4%. Consequently, the average price increase in the final quarter of the year was 2.6% MoM.
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January 14, 2025
Mexico | December recorded the largest job loss in the last 27 years …
Formal employment closed the year with an annual variation of 1.0%, well below expectations and the average of the last three years. Sectors such as manufacturing and construction performed poorly or negatively, playing key roles in this sharp slowdown.
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January 13, 2025
Spain | Public pensions in early 2025
Despite the high GDP growth rate of the Spanish economy (3.1% forecast for 2024) and a buoyant employment outlook (2.4% year-on-year growth in Social Security affiliation in December), the pension system has not yet managed to reduce its high structural deficit.
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January 10, 2025
Colombia | Savings: The cornerstone of economic progress
Colombia’s domestic savings reached 15.4% of GDP in Q3 2024, driven by the private sector. Yet, the annual average of 11.3% reveals structural challenges. Addressing fiscal imbalances is vital to establishing savings as the foundation for sustainable growth.
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January 10, 2025
Colombia | December inflation remained unchanged, leading to a 2024 closing at 5.2%
Inflation closed the year with an annual variation of 5.20%, remaining unchanged compared to the figure recorded in November. The monthly variation was 0.46%, above the expectations of market analysts, who according to the Banco de la República survey expected a monthly variation of 0.41%.
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January 10, 2025
Peru | BCRP moves the policy rate near its neutral level, now close to that point
In its January meeting, the Board of the Central Bank decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the real ex-ante reference rate, remains slightly above neutral.
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