Publications

Here are all of our publications listed chronologically. You can also find the publications relating to single geography under “Publications by geography” or narrow down your search using the “Advanced filter”.

Latest publications on Geostrategy

Global | BBVA Research Big Data Geopolitics Monitor. 31 March 2026

March 31, 2026

Trump US Signals Potential Expansion of Military Objectives in Iran Conflict. NATO intercepts Iranian Missiles. Trump signals willingness to end Iran without reopening Ormuz.

Global | International trade, one year after the tariff shock

March 30, 2026

Global trade has shown resilience following the increase in U.S. tariffs, avoiding a contraction despite a more protectionist environment, supported by the reconfiguration of trade flows, the boost from artificial intelligence, and temporary factors such as frontloaded purchases.

Big Data techniques used

Global | BBVA Research Big Data Geopolitics Monitor. 24 March 2026

March 24, 2026

President Donald Trump Signals Possible Diplomatic End to Iran War Amid Ongoing Uncertainty. Iran Rejects US Negotiation Claims.

Europe | The ECB and oil: no juggling acts

March 23, 2026

The ECB is addressing the supply shock stemming from the conflict in the Middle East by using economic scenarios. The institution is taking a watchful stance toward inflation risks and the persistence of energy prices to avoid second-round effects on the economy.

Spain | Higher inflation, slower growth: the cost of the conflict

March 23, 2026

The quote “it is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future” is attributed to Niels Bohr. Today, it is even more so in an environment of high uncertainty. The increase in costs caused by the war between the U.S. and Israel against Iran will have negative effects on the Spanish economy.

Big Data techniques used

Global | Geopolitics, geoeconomics and sovereign risk: different shocks,different channels

March 18, 2026

Geopolitical shocks reprice sovereign default risk directly; geoeconomic shocks bypass default risk and transmit through expected monetary policy and the global financial cycle.

Big Data techniques used

Global | BBVA Research Big Data Geopolitics Monitor. 17 March 2026

March 17, 2026

The Strait of Hormuz Crisis Deepens. European Allies Reluctant to Join U.S.-Led Naval Effort in Hormuz.Trump Suggests U.S. Could “Take” Cuba Amid Deepening Crisis

Global | The economy: between resilience and oil

March 16, 2026

The balance of 2025 showed economic resilience in the face of geopolitical tensions, supported by lower inflation and investment. The war in the Middle East is a supply shock, whose impact will depend on how long it lasts and how oil prices evolve.

Global | War in Iran: a new global shock or a temporary slowdown?

March 16, 2026

The recent military escalation in the Middle East represents a new energy crisis for the global economy. Although higher resource prices will put upward pressure on inflation, for now, a temporary slowdown rather than a deep global recession is expected.

Big Data techniques used

Global | BBVA Research Big Data Geopolitics Monitor. 10 March 2026

March 10, 2026

The US and Israel continued expanding their air campaign and now targets industry facilities. Iran retaliates with Regional Missiles and Drones.Trump signals War could end soon

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