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November 15, 2024
Sectoral focus is crucial for Colombia's economic recovery, but this requires investment. In Colombia and globally, financing is largely reliant on own resources and bank loans, overlooking the potential of capital markets to fuel sectoral growth.
November 15, 2024
A majority will remain determined to continue the easing cycle over the coming months, but we now expect Banxico to lower the policy rate to 8.00% by the end of next year (up from our previous 7.50% forecast).
November 13, 2024
In September, current credit to the NFPS slowed down 0.5% YoY in real terms, as a result of the lower dynamism of consumer and business credit. Traditional deposits decelerated 0.6% YoY in real terms, as a consequence of the continued weakness of term deposits. A feeble economic activity seems to lie beneath both dynamics.
November 12, 2024
Banxico is likely set to cut the policy rate by 25 bps this week in a backdrop of easing core services inflation, which is starting to turn a corner amid a challenging context for economic activity.
November 8, 2024
In its November meeting, the Board of the Central Bank decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.00%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the real ex-ante reference rate, remains above neutral.
November 8, 2024
We continue to think that the rate cut cycle still has legs, but following the outcome of the election the Fed will likely end the cycle sooner than previously thought on greater inflationary challenges under Trump’s potential policies.
November 5, 2024
FOMC members will likely continue to signal that their plan continues to be a gradual normalization of the fed funds rate. They are likely to agree to continue normalizing the monetary stance with more cautious 25bp rate cuts.
November 4, 2024
The consumer price index decreased 0.09% m/m in October. The result for the month is mainly explained by the decrease in the prices of some foods (normalization of supply). With this result, the interannual inflation rate stood at 2.0% in October, in the center of the BCRP's target range.
October 24, 2024
The market is far from having ruled out the possibility of further rate cuts though. Upcoming jobs and inflation data are likely to favor the view that the economy is expanding at a healthy pace rather than overheating, potentially leading to a modest decline in long-term yields.
October 15, 2024
After the good result in July, activity advanced 3.5% year-on-year in August. The performance of the activity continues to be relatively positive if one considers that in August of this year there were two fewer working days compared to the same month last year.
October 11, 2024
Domestic demand is driving Colombia's economic recovery, with GDP projected to grow by 2.0% in 2024 and up to 3.5% by 2026. Investment and consumption, particularly in durable goods, will fuel growth, while inflation and interest rates continue to decline.
