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December 20, 2024
However, we think that the best timing to cut the policy rate by 50 bps was today, since the window will likely close early next year if Trump imposes tariffs and a context of global risk aversion hits the peso, turning Banxico even more cautious.
December 19, 2024
With “the story of why inflation should be coming down [...] still intact,” the main reason behind today’s hawkish shift is likely the growing concern around the potential inflationary impact of Trump’s proposed trade, fiscal, and immigration policies.
December 17, 2024
Although we think there is a 40% chance of a 50bp cut, the Board will most likely end sticking to another 25bp cut. A 50bp rate cut would be a sound policy decision considering the excessively restrictive real ex-ante rate and the progress of disinflation.
December 16, 2024
Although they will continue to formally stay out of the debate around Trump 2.0, it is likely that several FOMC participants have begun to incorporate into their thinking some of the obvious effects of potential trade, fiscal and immigration policies.
December 16, 2024
Activity advanced 3.4% year-on-year in October. By productive sectors, the behavior of the non-primary component of GDP stood out, which registered an expansion of 4.2% and within this the sustained improvement of non-primary manufacturing (greater manufacturing of consumer and capital goods), construction and trade.
December 5, 2024
GDP will grow 2.5% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026, driven by private consumption in durable goods, semi-durables, and services starting in 2026, and by fixed investment in infrastructure, machinery, and housing. Inflation will be 3.1% in 2026, with lower interest rates strengthening financial conditions.
December 4, 2024
The Peruvian economy will grow 3,1% in 2024, 0,2pp more than expected in October. The revision mainly reflects the third quarter positive surprise. For 2025 we expect a 2,7% expansion, amid a challenging external context, but also when large infrastructure projects will begin construction.
December 2, 2024
The consumer price index increased 0.09% m/m in November. The result for the month is mainly explained by the increase in the prices of some foods, electricity rates, and domestic gas. With this result, the interannual inflation rate stood at 2.3% in November, in the center of the BCRP's target range.
November 28, 2024
Part of the rise in Treasury yields is also explained by a higher term premium, which has likely been driven by greater uncertainty around the US inflation and fiscal outlook in the following years amid Trump’s potential trade, tax and migration policies.
November 15, 2024
Sectoral focus is crucial for Colombia's economic recovery, but this requires investment. In Colombia and globally, financing is largely reliant on own resources and bank loans, overlooking the potential of capital markets to fuel sectoral growth.
November 15, 2024
A majority will remain determined to continue the easing cycle over the coming months, but we now expect Banxico to lower the policy rate to 8.00% by the end of next year (up from our previous 7.50% forecast).
