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October 24, 2024
The market is far from having ruled out the possibility of further rate cuts though. Upcoming jobs and inflation data are likely to favor the view that the economy is expanding at a healthy pace rather than overheating, potentially leading to a modest decline in long-term yields.
October 15, 2024
After the good result in July, activity advanced 3.5% year-on-year in August. The performance of the activity continues to be relatively positive if one considers that in August of this year there were two fewer working days compared to the same month last year.
October 11, 2024
Domestic demand is driving Colombia's economic recovery, with GDP projected to grow by 2.0% in 2024 and up to 3.5% by 2026. Investment and consumption, particularly in durable goods, will fuel growth, while inflation and interest rates continue to decline.
October 3, 2024
GDP will grow 2.9% this year and 2.7% in 2025. Private spending will gain traction in the coming quarters, supported by more favourable financial conditions, the impact of private pension funds withdrawals, and the beginning of construction of some infrastructure projects, while public spending will moderate.
October 1, 2024
Domestic demand will lead Colombia’s economic recovery, driven by improved financial conditions that will strengthen consumption and investment. This will provide a significant boost to sectors such as manufacturing and retail. In the long run, increasing investment will be essential to raise the country’s growth potential.
September 27, 2024
In a backdrop of an “improving” inflation outlook and worsening growth prospects, a majority of members seem to think the central bank has ample wiggle room to cut rates. The forward guidance now strongly suggests that Banxico is set to embark in a streak of consecutive rate cuts ahead.
September 26, 2024
Long-term yields have ceased from being driven by changes in inflation compensation, but they could decline markedly if markets begin to price in that the Fed will need to lower rates below neutral to avoid a recession.
September 24, 2024
In view of the lags of monetary policy, we think that Banxico is already late in adjusting the excessively high real ex-ante rate, and thus, the monetary policy stance is set to continue to weigh on the economy in the coming quarters.
September 19, 2024
The economic slowdown is already showing effects on banking activity. In July, credit to the non-financial private sector registered a widespread weakening, while traditional deposits grew less than in June, even considering the boosting effect of the exchange rate depreciation.
September 19, 2024
Fed’s quest to preserve the soft landing began today: it unequivocally confirmed that its focus has shifted to the labor market. It doesn’t look overly concerned about a hard landing, but rather signals its commitment “not to get behind” during the rate cut cycle.
