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Board members voted 4-1 to hold rates steady at 11.00%. The fact that the decision wasn’t unanimous came as a bit of surprise considering the recent peso weakening and that Banxico was set to revise up its short-term headline inflation forecasts.
Mid- and long-term Treasury yields eased further from their late-April’s highs on a less hawkish than expected Fed in this month’s meeting, and fresh signs that the inflation jump in 1Q will prove transitory.
Banxico will most likely suggest it will proceed with caution, at least until more information is available about the judicial reform and the type of fiscal adjustment that will be implemented next year to fulfill the federal government’s commi…
In April 2024, the balance of traditional bank deposits (sight + term) registered a real YoY growth rate of 3.6%, while the balance of the current credit portfolio granted by commercial banks to the non-financial private sector (NFPS) recorded …
After 6 months in office, the government has made significant progress in improving the fiscal balance, which in turn resulted in a reduction of monetary issuance and a deceleration of inflation. The challenge now is to consolidate the fiscal s…
Output will grow 2,9% this year (previous forecast: 2,7%), supported by a new pension funds withdrawal. Sectors affected by weather anomalies in 2023 will recover and non-primary sectors too thanks to increased private spending. In 2025, once the impact of pension funds withdrawals is exhausted, growth would reach 2,7%.
The BBVA Forum is a quarterly event aimed at the bank's clients. In each edition, we present a summary of our global and national economic outlook as a contribution to their short- and medium-term financial decisions.
GDP expanded 5.3% YoY in April. This result was influenced by the fact that some activities were affected by two more days of productive activity given that Easter was celebrated in April last year, while this year it was scheduled in March.
In its June decision, the Board of the Central Bank decided maintain the reference rate at 5.75%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the real ex-ante reference rate, remains in restrictive territory.
Colombia's economic growth will begin to accelerate gradually during the second half of the year. Domestic demand is expected to consolidate by 2025. Growth is projected at 1.8% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025. Inflation will continue to decrease, ena…
With the fed funds rate at its peak, growing chances of disinflation resuming in 2Q24 and more balanced risks, the Fed is likely to remain cautious in determining the timing of a first rate cut.
Intermeeting developments will likely not change the already-conveyed Fed message that more good data is needed to gain enough confidence in progress toward 2% inflation; the debate around the policy stance will continue to focus on for how long to keep the fed funds rate at its current level.
