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We summarize the recent development of the Chinese economy and highlight the unbalanced economic structure. Risks include the housing market, geopolitics, deflation and unbalanced economic structure. We also analyze the ongoing fiscal and monetary policy coordination to stimulate growth.
Tax revenue was MXN 8,922 million (0.03% of GDP) below budget since the excise taxes on fuels intake was below budget despite its real annual increment of 195.1% in 1Q24.
The indebtedness of different agents remains below that of peers. The composition of external debt has been shifting among the borrowers since 2018. There is the increasing trend led by public, compared to the ongoing decline in the private sec…
Public revenue in 2023 was MXN 84,326 million (0.27% of GDP) below budget due to lower oil-related income as international prices of a crude oil barrel went down.
Agencies’ ratings have remained relatively stable during 2023. Changes have been mostly positive in peripheral Europe, while US and France were downgraded by Fitch. The rating cycle has been mostly negative for Emerging Economies (EE), mainly d…
Public revenue in the first semester was MXN 157,650 million (0.5% of GDP) below budget due to lower oil-related income as international prices of a crude oil barrel went down.
The report aims to identify the fundamental differences between China and Japan, highlighting key distinctions to conclude that China will not experience "Japanization" or a "balance sheet recession."
The 2024 Economic Package was built with realistic macroeconomic assumptions. The fiscal equilibrium will be maintained in spite of such package setting a target of -1.2% of GDP for next year’s primary balance.
The next federal government will face a strong pressure on its public finances derived from current spending, pensions and the needs of higher physical investment.
Public revenue in the first semester was MXN 189,558 million (0.6% of GDP) below budget due to lower oil-related income as international prices of a crude oil barrel went down.
After the pandemic and the end of the construction of the third pulp mill, the Uruguayan economy faces a couple of years of moderate growth. However, in the long term, recent improvements in the sovereign risk rating reinforce the institutional quality and strength of the country's macroeconomic fundamentals.
The macroeconomic scenario deteriorated due to the strong impact of the drought, which substantially reduced agricultural exports, with negative effects on GDP and tax revenues.
