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December 10, 2024
Argentina Economic Outlook. December 2024
The economic recovery and the good financial context, within a framework of fiscal balance and monetary discipline, show that the worst of the crisis is over. Society maintains its support for the government, giving it room to address the challenges of fiscal balance sustainability and FX market flexibilization.
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October 1, 2024
Argentina Economic Outlook. October 2024
The government maintains a firm commitment to fiscal balance while upholding a "zero monetary issuance" policy for all items arising from the public sector. The slowdown in inflation has stalled since May, remaining around 4% monthly, and economic activity shows signs that the recession may have ended in Q2 2024.
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July 29, 2024
Türkiye | Quarterly Debt Outlook. Second Quarter 2024
The indebtedness of the private sector remains below that of peer countries, though signs of deterioration in NPL ratios started to be seen. Banks’ FC liquid assets are solid enough to cover their ST external debt. FC credit evolution and swap policies of the CBRT will be decisive for banks’ FC liquidity.
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June 13, 2024
China Economic Outlook. June 2024
We summarize the recent development of the Chinese economy and highlight the unbalanced economic structure. Risks include the housing market, geopolitics, deflation and unbalanced economic structure. We also analyze the ongoing fiscal and monetary policy coordination to stimulate growth.
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April 9, 2024
Türkiye | Quarterly Debt Outlook. First Quarter 2024
The indebtedness of different agents remains below that of peers. The composition of external debt has been shifting among the borrowers since 2018. There is the increasing trend led by public, compared to the ongoing decline in the private sector.
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January 10, 2024
Country Risk Annual Report 2024
Agencies’ ratings have remained relatively stable during 2023. Changes have been mostly positive in peripheral Europe, while US and France were downgraded by Fitch. The rating cycle has been mostly negative for Emerging Economies (EE), mainly due to specific idiosyncratic vulnerabilities.
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October 23, 2023
China | Will the country enter into "Japanization" and "balance sheet recession"?
The report aims to identify the fundamental differences between China and Japan, highlighting key distinctions to conclude that China will not experience "Japanization" or a "balance sheet recession."
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September 11, 2023
Mexico | The 2024 Economic Package will close six-year term without fiscal disequilibrium
The 2024 Economic Package was built with realistic macroeconomic assumptions. The fiscal equilibrium will be maintained in spite of such package setting a target of -1.2% of GDP for next year’s primary balance.
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