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March 25, 2025
In 2025, GDP is expected to grow by 5.5%, driven by consumption and investment, within a context of disinflationary consolidation and fiscal-monetary discipline. However, two key challenges remain: maintaining fiscal austerity during an election year and making significant progress in normalizing the foreign exchange market
March 25, 2025
Banxico could keep the door open to a third 50bp cut in May before slowing down to more cautious 25bp adjustments. This would strengthen our expectation that Banxico will bring down the policy rate to a below-consensus 7.5% by the end of this year.
March 24, 2025
In the final quarter of 2024, Donald Trump’s return to power in the United States had a negative impact on the euro. Aggressive protectionist policies and increased fiscal stimulus in the country were expected to push the dollar higher.
March 19, 2025
Powell signaled in the Q&A two complementary factors behind unchanged interest rate projections, which still point to 50bp worth of rate cuts later this year: i) weaker growth but higher inflation which “[...] kind of balance each other out”; and ii) uncertainty.
March 18, 2025
The Peruvian economy will grow 3.1% in 2025, 0.4 percentage points more than forecast in December. This change primarily reflects higher expected growth in the US and China and earlier and increased investment flows into some mining and infrastructure projects. Growth is projected to remain at 2.7% for 2026.
March 17, 2025
We do not expect either the statement or Powell to hint at a possible rate cut soon amid heightened downside risks to growth and instead expect both to convey that amid lingering uncertainty the Fed remains comfortable in its current wait-and-see mode and is in “no hurry” to resume the rate cut cycle.
March 14, 2025
In its March meeting, the Board of the Central Bank decided to keep the policy rate at 4.75%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the real ex-ante reference rate, remains slightly above neutral.
March 14, 2025
Colombia’s GDP will grow 2.5% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026, driven by consumption and investment. Inflation will continue to decline but remain rigid in housing and energy. The external deficit will widen as domestic demand rises, while the central bank balances economic recovery with inflationary prudence.
March 13, 2025
Colombia’s economy will grow 2.5% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026, driven by consumption and investment. Inflation will continue declining, though housing and energy costs will remain rigid. Monetary policy will gradually lower rates, while the external deficit will widen due to rising imports and lower remittance inflows.
March 9, 2025
Monthly inflation in February was 1.14%, while annual inflation stood at 5.28%. This result exceeded market analysts' expectations, as the Banco de la República survey had anticipated a monthly variation of 0.98%.
February 27, 2025
A recent string of weak data together with the postponement of tariffs and a less worrisome fiscal bill than feared likely eased market participants’ bets of a scenario in which the Fed keeps interest rates at their current level for the whole year.
