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February 13, 2025
Spain | Monetary policy pass-through in the loosening cycle
Spanish banks are rapidly translating the reduction in official interest rates to new lending operations' interest rates, which benefits borrowers. In the case of deposits, the transmission is slightly slower than in the hiking cycle, which benefits depositors.
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February 7, 2025
Mexico | For now, Mexico is successful at avoiding tariffs
On Monday, February 3, the heads of state of Mexico and the US reached an agreement to put on hold for a month the imposition of tariffs that the White House pretended to apply to imports coming from Mexico.
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February 6, 2025
Mexico | Banxico speeds up easing pace, strikes a more dovish tone
It unequivocally signaled that it remains set to keep cutting rates steadily ahead and hinted that in the absence of any major events, it is likely to consider additional 50bp cuts at upcoming meetings.
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February 5, 2025
Mexico | With the tariff threat in pause, a 50bp rate cut now seems very likely
Below 4.0% inflation, easing core services inflation, softer aggregate demand, a cooling labor market, a peso that continues to hold up, and an overly restrictive monetary policy stance, keep the door wide open for a larger 50bp cut.
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January 30, 2025
Europe | The direction is clear: more cuts to come
The ECB adopted a relatively dovish stance today while implementing the widely expected rate cut, signaling the possibility of further reductions without committing to a specific terminal level. This approach aligns with the continued progress in disinflation and the subdued momentum of the Eurozone economy.
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January 30, 2025
US | Fed pauses rate cuts to kick off 2025
Signs that core inflation is back on trend to 2% could open the door for another cut in March, but the implementation of policies that could spark an upward trend in inflation, even if temporary, could imply a more extended pause.
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January 27, 2025
US | Fed to remain cautious as probable tariffs cast a shadow on monetary policy easing
The risk has grown that the Fed could keep rates on hold for more than one meeting as the nature and purpose of the upcoming tariffs is still unknown (i.e., their magnitude, their temporary or permanent nature, used mostly as a negotiating tool?).
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January 23, 2025
US | Market’s rate expectations remain broadly unchanged following Trump’s inauguration
Further easing of at most 50 bps by year-end is still on the table, but the Fed will likely stay on the sidelines while the uncertainty around renewed immigration policies lingers and until it knows if Trump follows through on his plans to impose tariffs.
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January 14, 2025
Argentina | Inflation recorded 2.7% MoM in December and an annual rate of 117.8% for 2024
This aligns with market expectations, as outlined by BBVA (2.8%) and REM-BCRA (2.7%), and reflects a slight increase from November's rate of 2.4%. Consequently, the average price increase in the final quarter of the year was 2.6% MoM.
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