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December 13, 2024
Five weeks after the DANA (December 3–9), most indicators in Valencia province displayed stronger performance than those in the rest of Spain. However, foreign card spending continued to lag behind the national growth rate.
December 5, 2024
One month after DANA (week from November 26 to December 2), the majority of indicators in the province of Valencia show a similar evolution to that observed in the rest of Spain, highlighting the acceleration shown in spending by foreigners, car registrations and the most affected municipalities.
December 2, 2024
We expect US protectionism to fuel uncertainty, and pressure global growth downwards and inflation upwards. In Türkiye, soft landing efforts remain on growth and employment outlook, increasing the downside risks on public spending cuts. Monetary policy communication becomes less hawkish and signals an easing cycle soon.
November 29, 2024
Spending in the province of Valencia rebounded during the week of November 19 to 25. The growth differential with the rest of Spain became positive in most indicators, although the most affected municipalities still show significant falls.
November 28, 2024
We keep our GDP growth forecast for 2024 unchanged at 1.2%, and 1.0% for 2025; the favorable impact of economic activity in 2H24 is offset by lower exports and investment in the face of new tariffs next year.
November 25, 2024
Observing the performance of the economy in real time and at high granularity is vital to quickly measure the economic impact of an exceptional event such as the recent DANA that has left a lasting impact in our country, especially in Valencia.
November 22, 2024
During the week of November 12 to 18, the improvement trend in most spending indicators stopped. Growth rates have shown a similar behavior to that of the previous week, maintaining a negative gap with respect to the evolution observed in the rest of Spain.
November 20, 2024
Growth outlook remained weak, while the demand indicators point to a slower-than-desired correction. Considering tight financial conditions and the gradual moderation in domestic demand, we expect the economic growth to reach 3.2% in 2024 but downside risks are increasing on our 2.7% growth forecast for 2025.
November 15, 2024
Most indicators show an improvement in economic activity in Valencia during the week of November 5 to 11, although both the growth rates and, more importantly, the levels remain below what would have been observed without the DANA, particularly in the hardest-hit municipalities, where significant impacts are still evident.
November 8, 2024
The objective of the first issue of this weekly observatory is to contribute to monitoring the economic impact of DANA on families and companies in the affected areas, report on the relief provided by public policies and provide data that can help improve them.
October 17, 2024
The moderation in domestic demand continues, while the production side demonstrates a clearer worsening trend in 3Q. We expect GDP growth to be 3.2% and retreat further to 2.7% on restrictive monetary policy, tight financial conditions and expected fiscal consolidation in 2025.
