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January 2, 2023
Unusually and unexpectedly high inflation has been one of the most analyzed and discussed topics in 2022. Its causes and consequences have been at the very heart of the economic debate. And although its determining factors have not yet been unequivocally identified, its effects are already visible.
November 12, 2019
We expect ongoing easing in global uncertainties, and policy support to sustain flows into EMs, mainly those implementing ‘sound’ policies and with stable currencies. However, concerns over underlying vulnerabilities and the potential for further bouts of cross asset volatility will restrain a sharp recovery in EM inflows.
May 17, 2019
The dynamics of Global Investment Funds flows in 1Q19 can be characterized by a widening bond-equity divergence, and a visible moderation in inflows to EMs. Looking ahead, we expect EM outflows to continue at a moderate pace until global volatility eases. In a risk scenario, EMs to face more intense and persistent outflows.
February 21, 2019
Global Investment Funds (GIF) flows have been on a roller coaster ride since the start of Q418. Sharp pullback in portfolio flows in late 2018, focus on DMs, but since the start of this year, GIFs inflows recovered particularly to EMs. Looking ahead, EMs would continue to outperform DMs over the short term although hinged on Fed and progress on US-China trade dispute.
December 31, 2018
The high volatility and sharp falls in stock markets which have been dominating global markets these past few days leave a bitter year-end taste and raise quite a few questions for 2019. This past year 2018 was never going to be easy, with the environment of abundant liquidity and low interest rates drawing to a close.
November 6, 2018
As expected, Global investment funds registered net outflows for a 2nd quarter in a row. Withdrawals from EM continued while DM’s outflows were an unwelcomed surprise: those from Europe accelerated to a pace not seen since 2011. According to our baseline scenario (cyclical downturn, monetary policy normalization and volatility), outflows from EM are likely to remain
July 20, 2018
Over the past two years movements in the peso’s rate of exchange against the dollar have tended to follow more than anything the prospects for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and trade relations between Mexico and the United States in general.
May 8, 2018
Global Investment Funds still attracted sizable flows in 1Q18 while. Recently, some moderation has already occurred with the bulk of flows retrenchment concentrated in developed markets. The financial outlook is certainly challenging for Emerging Markets as volatility and interest rates “normalize” in a context of high debt levels.
January 26, 2018
In 4Q17, solid net inflows to Global Investment Funds (GIF) continued to decelerate, but only slightly backed by global factors: macro outlook, oil prices and subdued volatility. Inflows to GIF shall continue to cool down as the unwinding of central bank balance sheets starts draining liquidity off the markets. Our baseline scenario assumes a smooth normalization process.
November 8, 2017
El crecimiento mundial continúa robusto e incluye a más regiones. Se recupera el crecimiento en América Latina, pero sera aún lento en 2017 y 2018. En Brasil, la recuperación cíclica sigue en marcha, impulsada por las exportaciones y el consumo. En Argentina, el triunfo del oficialismo en las últimas elecciones aleja el fantasma de la vuelta del populismo.
July 5, 2016
The unexpected Brexit victory triggers a period of global uncertainty that financial markets are screening. All the uncertainties about the following negotiating process between the UK and the EU do not help to anchor expectations.
