Uncertainty
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July 12, 2024
Global | Transition towards decarbonization. Challenges, levers and investment needs
In the face of increasing evidence of the consequences of human-caused climate change, inaction is not an option. Climate mitigation and adaptation policies must be further promoted, including appropriate incentives to finance investment needs of uncertain estimation.
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October 23, 2018
Spain | The effect of uncertainty in Catalonia: a synthetic control analysis
Private sector Social Security registrations in Catalonia have slowed down markedly since mid-2017. The analysis presented suggests that the increased uncertainty in the region had a negative effect on employment, reducing job creation by about 30,000 jobs.
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January 22, 2018
Are we wrong about Catalonia?
The fact that we are not seeing any significant deterioration in activity, in view of the uncertainty arising from the political environment in Catalonia, has cast doubt on estimates of the negative impact that these events could be having. It is very likely that the increased uncertainty is reducing the Spanish economy’s capacity for growth.
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January 2, 2018
A good year, with lots of doubts
The year 2017 started with plenty of uncertainty for the global economy. President Trump had just been elected, the emerging economies were not doing particularly well and Europe was facing a difficult electoral cycle, with the memory of the Brexit referendum still fresh.
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July 29, 2016
U.S. | Economic uncertainty: no relief for faint-hearted
Two year highs in uncertainty inauspicious sign for growth in 2016. Lending activity could suffer if banks grow wary of economic outlook. Likelihood of Fed raising rates low amidst geopolitical or policy tumult
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July 14, 2016
Consumo en tiempos de incertidumbre
Decía Kant que la inteligencia de un individuo se mide por la cantidad de incertidumbre que es capaz de soportar. A la vista de las cifras de consumo, alguien podría concluir que los españoles destacan por su clarividencia y erudición.
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February 15, 2016
Rational Expectations
I am part of a cult. At least that is the perception of many economists when I tell them that I studied for my Ph.D. in Minnesota. Since 2000, 6 people who studied or pursued the most important part of their research agenda at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Minnesota have won the Nobel Prize.
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