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The Central Bank kept the policy rate at 50% in line with expectations. We expect that annual inflation will come down to 45-50% by September on base effects before ending the year at 43%. We believe that there would be only a limited room to start easing cycle very gradually in 4Q24 considering high inflation expectations.
The CBRT maintained the policy rate (50%) and the range between borrowing and lending rates (600 bps). They remain cautious about the risks on inflation outlook. On financial stability concerns, they aim to sterilize excess TL liquidity stemming from the most recent domestic and foreign demand for TL financial assets.
The CBRT kept the policy rate constant at 50% in line with market expectations. We expect the CBRT to remain tight for longer on high inflation expectations, which would start a sustained path to unwind current regulations and exit from the FC …
In the week ending by March 22nd, foreign currency adjusted weekly credit growth rose from 0.3% to 0.7% due to consumer credits in the sector. Total credits’ 13-week annualized trend hovers around 35%.
The Central Bank (CBRT) surprised the markets and hiked the policy rate by 500 bps to 50%. They promised to tighten the stance further according to the inflation outlook and support the monetary transmission mechanism in case of unanticipated d…
The Central Bank (CBRT) maintained the policy rate at 45% as expected. We maintain our call of keeping 45% policy rate throughout the year with a bias tilted to the upside.
The Central Bank of Turkey maintained the policy rate (one-week repo) at 19% in line with the expectations. We expect the CBRT to start an easing cycle very gradually in 4Q (depending on the potential market volatility and upside risks on the inflation) and end the year with 17.5% policy rate.
The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) maintained the policy rate (one-week repo) at 19% in line with the expectations. Given the rising upside risks on inflation outlook and potentially increasing global yields, we expect the CBRT to start an easin…
The Central Bank of Turkey kept the policy rate at 19% in line with the expectations. Given the worsened inflation expectations, the CBRT repeated the need to decisively keep the current “tight” monetary policy stance. Thus we expect an easing …
Consumer prices increased by 0.89% in May, sizably lower than expectations, resulting in an annual inflation of 16.59% (down from 17.14% the month before). We maintain our year-end inflation forecast at 15% and expect the CBRT to start an easin…
The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) kept the policy rate (one-week repo) at 19% in line with the expectations. Given the worsened inflation outlook, the CBRT tries to manage by eliminating any early rate cut expectations thus, we expect an easing cycle only very gradually in late 3Q and end the year with 16% policy rate.
Consumer prices increased 1.68% in April resulting in an annual inflation of 17.1% (up from 16.2% the month before). We maintain our year-end inflation forecast at 15% and expect the CBRT to start an easing cycle only very gradually in September.
