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February 3, 2025
Consumer inflation climbed up to 5.03% m/m, higher than consensus and our expectation (both at 4.3%), while annual inflation declined further to 42.12% on favorable base effects. We maintain our year-end 2025 inflation forecasts of 26.5%, despite the existence of more pronounced upward inflationary risks.
January 3, 2025
Consumer prices rose by %1.03 m/m in December, lower than consensus and our expectations (both at 1.6%), leading year-end annual inflation to reach 44.4%. We maintain our year-end 2025 inflation forecasts of 26.5% on a more balanced risk outlook.
December 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by %2.24 m/m in November, higher than consensus (2.0%), with no improvement in the underlying inflation trend. Considering November realizations, we evaluate annual consumer inflation is likely to finish the year at around 45% and decline to 26.5% in 2025 on our assumption of an effective policy mix.
November 4, 2024
Consumer prices rose by %2.88 m/m in September, higher than our expectation and consensus (2.7% vs. 2.5%), while the monthly consumer inflation trend eased only limitedly. We now expect year-end inflation to be nearly 45% and risks on our 2025 year-end forecast of 25% become clearly tilted to the upside.
October 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by %2.97 m/m in September, higher than our expectation (2.5%). The annual consumer inflation came down below 50% on the back of base effects, while the underlying consumer inflation trend worsened. We expect inflation to decrease to 43% and 25% by the end of 2024 and 2025, respectively.
September 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by %2.47 m/m in August, higher than our expectation (2.2%) and consensus (2.3%). As a result, annual consumer inflation came down to 51.9% from 61.8% previously. We forecast inflation trend to improve; reaching 1.5-2% monthly in 4Q24 and finish the year annually at 43% in 2024 and 25% in 2025.
August 20, 2024
The Central Bank (CBRT) kept the policy rate at 50% in line with the expectations. They repeat their commitment to support monetary transmission mechanism via additional macro-prudential measures if needed.
August 5, 2024
Consumer inflation increased by 3.23% m/m in July, slightly lower than our expectation, while the annual inflation declined to 61.8% from 72% in June on favorable base effect. We expect the annual inflation to decline below %50 as of September and fall further to 43% at the end of 2024.
July 23, 2024
The Central Bank kept the policy rate at 50% in line with expectations, maintaining a wait and see approach with a hawkish message. They highlight a potential temporary increase in monthly inflation in July, but expect the rise in the underlying inflation trend to be limited.
July 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by 1.64% m/m in June, well below our expectation (2.24%), which led to an annual inflation of 71.60%. We expect the monthly consumer inflation trend to continue to weaken, driving the annual inflation down to 45-50% range by September and to 43% by the end of 2024.
June 27, 2024
The Central Bank kept the policy rate at 50% in line with expectations. We expect that annual inflation will come down to 45-50% by September on base effects before ending the year at 43%. We believe that there would be only a limited room to start easing cycle very gradually in 4Q24 considering high inflation expectations.
June 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by 3.37% m/m in May, higher than expectations (3.1% consensus and 3% ours), leading the annual inflation to rise to 75.45%. We expect inflation to decline faster in 2H24 on favorable base effects and reach 43% at the year end.
