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August 11, 2023
Industrial production (IP) increased by 1.6% m/m in seasonal and calendar adjusted series, resulting in the 2.3% q/q acceleration of activity in 2Q (vs. 0.5% q/q in 1Q). We expect GDP growth to be 4.5% in 2023 thanks to the strong growth pattern in 1H23, especially considering the soft landing scenario.
July 13, 2023
Industrial production (IP) decreased by 0.2% y/y in cal. adj. series while unadjusted figure increased by 11.3% in May. We forecast GDP growth to be 4.5% in 2023, led by expected gradual normalization steps in monetary policy, whereas the growth in 2024 will depend on the stance of policies against inflation.
May 12, 2023
Industrial production (IP) rapidly recovered in March increasing by 5.5% m/m (1.8% m/m cons.), mostly wiping out the impact from the earthquakes. Recent better than forecasted momentum and potential continuation of populist policies after elections put upside risk on our 2023 growth forecast of 3%.
April 12, 2023
Industrial production (IP) deteriorated sharply in Feb. contracting by 6.0% m/m on seas. and cal. adj. series, contrary to consensus (+2% m/m exp.). Considering recovery signaled by our nowcasts and assuming gradual policy normalization after the elections, we expect GDP to grow 3% in 2023 but risks remain on the upside.
March 13, 2023
Industrial production (IP) production grew 7.0% y/y in January (vs. 4.6% expected and 3.9% market consensus). Our big data indicators started to signal a quick recovery to their pre-quake levels. Hence, we maintain our 2023 GDP forecast of 3%, assuming a manageable normalization from the current policies.
January 12, 2023
Activity indicators signaled the continuation of weakness till late Dec22 but starting from thereafter early figures indicate the reversal of the recent deceleration. We forecast 5-5.5% GDP growth in 2022 and a very strong start to the year with near 2% q/q growth rate in 1Q23. We expect GDP growth to be 3% in 2023.
December 13, 2022
Industrial production (IP) surprised to the upside and grew 2.5% y/y in October (vs. 0.1% expected). Though, weaker activity in 4Q so far puts slight downward risk on our 2022 GDP forecast of 5.5%. We forecast 3% GDP growth in 2023 with expected solid performance in the first half of the year.
November 11, 2022
Industrial production (IP) once again surprised to the downside and grew 0.4% y/y in September (vs. 3% expected), implying a very sharp deceleration with 2.5% y/y in 3Q (vs. 10.7% in 2Q). We forecast 5.5% GDP growth in 2022 and 3% in 2023 with the help of potential boost before the elections.
October 12, 2022
Industrial production (IP) surprised to the downside and grew 4.1% y/y in August, implying 3.7% y/y in July-August period (vs. 10.7% in 2Q). Monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a quarterly GDP growth of 0.5-1% for 3Q, while we maintain our 2022 GDP growth forecast at 6%.
October 7, 2022
We aim to improve our existing Monthly GDP Nowcasting Model in order to draw a leading and more accurate picture of the economic activity in real time in Türkiye. In addition, we also generate a reliable in-house «Weekly GDP Tracker» to compute real-time responses to policy impulses in a period of rapidly changing shocks.
August 16, 2022
Industrial Production continued to surprise on the upside and grew 8.5% y/y in cal. adj. terms in June. Monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a quarterly GDP contraction of near 1% as of early August, while we maintain our 2022 GDP growth forecast at 5%.
June 13, 2022
Industrial Production continued to surprise on the upside and grew 10.8% y/y in calendar adjusted terms in April. If no substantial negative shock occurs, given the current pace, it becomes more likely to achieve a full year growth rate close to 5%.
