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September 2, 2024
Turkish economy grew by 0.1% q/q and 2.5% y/y in 2Q24. Significant revisions in both 2023 and 1Q24 resulted in a moderation of the quarterly growth path with 0.1% growth in 2Q24 after 1.4% in 1Q24 (vs. 2.4% before revision) in contrast with our previous mild contraction expectation.
May 31, 2024
Turkish economy grew by 5.7% y/y in 1Q above the market consensus of 5.5% but lower than our expectation of 6%. Given the strong performance of 1H24 and lagged effects of expected fiscal consolidation and monetary policy, risks start to be tilted to the upside for our 2024 GDP forecast of 3.5%.
January 15, 2024
Industrial production (IP) fell by 1.4% m/m in seas. and cal. adj. series, while increasing by 0.2% y/y on calendar adjusted terms. GDP growth will likely materialize closer to 4.5% in 2023 but decelerate to 3-3.5% in 2024 led by monetary tightening and poor foreign demand.
November 14, 2023
Industrial production (IP) slightly fell by 0.1% m/m in seas. and cal. adj. series, corresponding to 4.0% y/y growth in cal. adj. terms. Given our soft-landing assumption with expected fiscal impulse and support from potential foreign capital inflow, we maintain our GDP growth forecast at 4.5% for 2023 and at 3.5% for 2024.
August 11, 2023
Industrial production (IP) increased by 1.6% m/m in seasonal and calendar adjusted series, resulting in the 2.3% q/q acceleration of activity in 2Q (vs. 0.5% q/q in 1Q). We expect GDP growth to be 4.5% in 2023 thanks to the strong growth pattern in 1H23, especially considering the soft landing scenario.
July 13, 2023
Industrial production (IP) decreased by 0.2% y/y in cal. adj. series while unadjusted figure increased by 11.3% in May. We forecast GDP growth to be 4.5% in 2023, led by expected gradual normalization steps in monetary policy, whereas the growth in 2024 will depend on the stance of policies against inflation.
June 1, 2023
Turkish economy grew by 4% y/y in 1Q23 in line with market expectation (vs. 3.9% consensus and 4.3% ours). Assuming no sharp normalization in economic policies ahead of local election in 2024, we expect GDP growth to be in the range of 4-5% in 2023 on the current strong momentum and expected loose policies.
May 12, 2023
Industrial production (IP) rapidly recovered in March increasing by 5.5% m/m (1.8% m/m cons.), mostly wiping out the impact from the earthquakes. Recent better than forecasted momentum and potential continuation of populist policies after elections put upside risk on our 2023 growth forecast of 3%.
April 12, 2023
Industrial production (IP) deteriorated sharply in Feb. contracting by 6.0% m/m on seas. and cal. adj. series, contrary to consensus (+2% m/m exp.). Considering recovery signaled by our nowcasts and assuming gradual policy normalization after the elections, we expect GDP to grow 3% in 2023 but risks remain on the upside.
March 13, 2023
Industrial production (IP) production grew 7.0% y/y in January (vs. 4.6% expected and 3.9% market consensus). Our big data indicators started to signal a quick recovery to their pre-quake levels. Hence, we maintain our 2023 GDP forecast of 3%, assuming a manageable normalization from the current policies.
February 28, 2023
Turkish economy grew by 3.5% y/y in 4Q22 (vs. 3% exp. and 2.9% consensus), leading to an overall GDP growth of 5.6% in 2022. We maintain our GDP growth forecast at 3% in 2023 assuming expansionary fiscal policy and better global growth outlook will compensate the negative impact of the quakes.
January 12, 2023
Activity indicators signaled the continuation of weakness till late Dec22 but starting from thereafter early figures indicate the reversal of the recent deceleration. We forecast 5-5.5% GDP growth in 2022 and a very strong start to the year with near 2% q/q growth rate in 1Q23. We expect GDP growth to be 3% in 2023.
