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As of 1Q24, Mexican exports totaled 144 billion dollars and imports totaled 146 billion dollars. 82.7% of Mexican´s exports went to the US and manufacturing exports totaled 127.1 billion dollars, 88.5% of the total. FDI as of 1Q24 amounted 20.3 billion dollars, 13.6% lower than 1Q23.
The process of relocating companies, or nearshoring, has placed Mexico in the international spotlight, with great expectations about the arrival of companies that seek to bring (part of) their production closer to the US market, which in turn would boost Mexican exports.
The trade balance reversed its behavior of the end of last year and posted a deficit in the first quarter of 2024. Given the stylized fact that the trade balance shows a countercyclical behavior, this deficit reflects that the Mexican economy r…
We summarize China’s Balance of Payments situation in 2023 post-pandemic time and compare it with the pandemic time; we also predict its trend in 2024.
By the end of 2023, Mexico recorded a trade deficit of 5,463 million dollars ($5.46 bn). Manufacturing leads both exports and imports. Mexico solidified its position as the leading supplier in the US market while FDI dropped slightly in 2023.
The trade balance had not posted a surplus since 2Q21. Given the stylized fact that the trade balance shows a countercyclical behavior, the trade surplus in 4Q23 is another indicator that suggests that the growth of the Mexican economy slowed down significantly by the end of last year.
In the third quarter, the current account deficit continued to narrow and reached 1.68 billion dollars, representing 1.7% of GDP. Nevertheless, the reasons for this closing are not as good as others: they respond to the process of contraction that domestic demand has undergone so far this year.
To allow the country to maximize the economic benefits of nearshoring in the medium term, the next federal government could formulate a national infrastructure plan and favor an industrial policy that enhances investment in renewable energy, el…
To increase the benefits of nearshoring in the medium term, the next federal government could design and implement a national infrastructure plan that contributes to expand and improve the quality of roads, railways, ports, industrial complexes…
We expect the trade balance to show a lower deficit this year due to the expectation of 2.4% for GDP growth vs. 3.0% in 2022. To increase the benefits of nearshoring, public policies will have to contribute to the expansion of infrastructure an…
We expect the trade balance to show a lower deficit this year under the expectation of lower GDP growth when compared to 2022. To promote both nearshoring and FDI flows into Mexico, the country will have to invest more in electrical infrastructure and, particularly, in transmission lines.
We expect the trade balance to show lower deficits or even surpluses in some quarters of next year under a scenario of a significant slowdown of global economic growth. Moreover, nearshoring and relocation of global supply chains will continue supporting FDI flows into Mexico in the medium and long run.
