Publications

Global trade has shown resilience following the increase in U.S. tariffs, avoiding a contraction despite a more protectionist environment, supported by the reconfiguration of trade flows, the boost from artificial intelligence, and temporary factors such as frontloaded purchases.

This year, the trade agreement between Mexico, the United States, and Canada (USMCA) enters its review process. It is worth recalling that the agreement is in force until 2036, but it includes a review mechanism beginning July 1 that could lead to different scenarios.

The latest data from the National Accounts of the INE provide an image that, at first glance, could revive old ghosts of the Spanish economy. Following a post-pandemic recovery supported by the foreign sector's contributions, the dynamics have shifted.

The main difference between the fall International Monetary Fund (IMF) meetings and those of last spring is that everything looks better: the global economy is growing at a reasonable pace, without inflationary shocks despite U.S. tariffs, geostrategic tensions and uncertainty.

The strength of the financial markets is surprising. Despite geopolitical, commercial and fiscal risks, global stock markets and credit have reached new highs, generating complacency. What sustains markets in the face of adverse macroeconomic and geopolitical logic?

Mexico's economy slowed by mid-2025. Growth in Q2 2025 was concentrated in primary activities (+4.5%) and services (+1.1%), while industry contracted (−1.3%). Services, particularly tourism and trade, drove stronger performances in CDMX and Baja California. The automotive sector saw declining exports due to new tariffs.

This presentation analyzes the global outlook (recent developments and forecasts), and focuses on the EU and Asia trade and capital flows, as well as the challenges both areas face arising from global changes and the reshaping of the world order.