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February 3, 2025
Consumer inflation climbed up to 5.03% m/m, higher than consensus and our expectation (both at 4.3%), while annual inflation declined further to 42.12% on favorable base effects. We maintain our year-end 2025 inflation forecasts of 26.5%, despite the existence of more pronounced upward inflationary risks.
November 22, 2024
Colombia's GDP grew 2.0% year-on-year in Q3 2024, driven by investment in civil works and machinery, though with moderate private consumption and a decline in public consumption. Growth is projected at 2.0% for 2024, with gradual acceleration in 2025, led by investment and goods consumption.
November 20, 2024
Tourism in Colombia hit historic highs in 2023, marked by significant growth in international visitors, revenues, and employment. A diversified offer and domestic tourism drive the sector, yet challenges in infrastructure and sustainability demand focus to unlock its full potential.
November 4, 2024
Consumer prices rose by %2.88 m/m in September, higher than our expectation and consensus (2.7% vs. 2.5%), while the monthly consumer inflation trend eased only limitedly. We now expect year-end inflation to be nearly 45% and risks on our 2025 year-end forecast of 25% become clearly tilted to the upside.
October 21, 2024
Spain faces a fiscal adjustment of around 2.5 percentage points of GDP over the next few years. Its debt and public deficit levels make it vulnerable and must be improved through a more efficient set of public policies.
October 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by %2.97 m/m in September, higher than our expectation (2.5%). The annual consumer inflation came down below 50% on the back of base effects, while the underlying consumer inflation trend worsened. We expect inflation to decrease to 43% and 25% by the end of 2024 and 2025, respectively.
September 23, 2024
Inflation is falling and over the coming months various factors are expected to place it around, or below, 2%. Nonetheless, pressure from higher labor costs and geopolitical uncertainty could make for a bumpy ride.
September 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by %2.47 m/m in August, higher than our expectation (2.2%) and consensus (2.3%). As a result, annual consumer inflation came down to 51.9% from 61.8% previously. We forecast inflation trend to improve; reaching 1.5-2% monthly in 4Q24 and finish the year annually at 43% in 2024 and 25% in 2025.
August 5, 2024
Consumer inflation increased by 3.23% m/m in July, slightly lower than our expectation, while the annual inflation declined to 61.8% from 72% in June on favorable base effect. We expect the annual inflation to decline below %50 as of September and fall further to 43% at the end of 2024.
July 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by 1.64% m/m in June, well below our expectation (2.24%), which led to an annual inflation of 71.60%. We expect the monthly consumer inflation trend to continue to weaken, driving the annual inflation down to 45-50% range by September and to 43% by the end of 2024.
June 26, 2024
The recent increase in inflation, not seen in decades, has shown our aversion to the constant escalation of prices. Although inflation has already fallen, it is expected to stay above 3%, and around 2.5% in 2025, affected by the performance of the cost of services.
June 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by 3.37% m/m in May, higher than expectations (3.1% consensus and 3% ours), leading the annual inflation to rise to 75.45%. We expect inflation to decline faster in 2H24 on favorable base effects and reach 43% at the year end.
