Filter all of our publications to find the ones you are most interested in by content language, date, geography and/or topic.
Sort our publications chronologically from newest to oldest, regardless of geography and/or topic matter.
Sort publications according to the number of time reads by our users, regardless of geography and/or topic matter.
March 10, 2016
Even though inflation forecasts were revised upwards, the tone of the monetary policy minutes was not hawkish. The Copom refrained from signalling that either a tightening or an easing of monetary conditions is imminent. Hence, the minutes reinforced the view that the Selic rate will remain unchanged for some further time (until the end of 2016, in our opinion).
September 10, 2015
The monetary policy minutes revealed that the COPOM is now seeing inflation converging to 4.5% in 2016, which explains its decision to leave the Selic unchanged at 14.25%. However, it highlighted that some upside risks (mainly fiscal policy deterioration and exchange rate depreciation) require the monetary authority to remain vigilant.
May 7, 2015
The minutes of last week's monetary policy meeting suggest that the tightening cycle is not over yet. According to the COPOM, the efforts to drive inflation down to 4.5% by the end of 2016 are "still not sufficient" and therefore monetary policy must remain "vigilant". We take today's minutes as a sign that the SELIC will be adjusted by 50bp to 13.75% in June.
December 11, 2014
The minutes of last week's monetary policy meeting in which the SELIC rate was hiked by 50bp to 11.75% show that the plan of the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) is to take inflation back to the 4.5% target by 2016. To do so the monetary authority seems to count on more supportive fiscal and quasi-fiscal policies from now on. In the short-term, ongoing inflationary pressures driven by the exchange rate depreciation and administered prices should be fought with additional adjustments in the SELIC, to be implemented "with parsimony".
December 4, 2014
In its last meeting in 2014, the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) decided to hike the SELIC rate by 50bp to 11.75%. The move surprised part of the market -including us- which expected a 25bp increase, same pace as in the previous meeting. In spite of the faster pace, which we see as a move by the monetary authority to try to regain credibility in its fight against inflation and which is consistent with the more restrictive tone of fiscal policy expected from the beginning of 2015 onward, the communique of yesterday's decision signaled that the ongoing tightening cycle in the SELIC rate will not last much longer.
November 6, 2014
The minutes of last week's monetary policy meeting, in which the BCB hiked the SELIC by 25bp to 11.25%, suggested that not only the exchange rate but also the tone of fiscal policy and the pressures coming from administered prices will determine the pace and the final magnitude of the monetary tightening cycle that started last week. In spite of the uncertainty regarding these variables, especially high now given the lack of definition about who is going to be the Finance Minister at the beginning of Dilma Rousseff's second government, we expect the SELIC rate to continue to be adjusted at a 25bp pace in the next few months.
September 11, 2014
The minutes of last week's monetary policy meeting brought no exciting news. The messages included in the previous official communication suggesting the SELIC rate will remain at 11.0% for some time were maintained unchanged. However, it is worth noting that the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) now sees lower inflationary pressures in 2014 than before. We expect the SELIC rate to be left at 11.0% during the remainder of the year and then to be adjusted upward next year.
September 4, 2014
As at its two previous meetings, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) unanimously decided to leave the Selic rate unchanged at 11.0%. In addition, the slight adjustment in the accompanying statement reinforced the perspectives that policy rates will remain at the current level for some time, at least until the end of the year.
July 17, 2014
As widely expected, the monetary authority announced yesterday after financial markets closed in Brazil that policy rates will remain at 11%. We expect the BCB to maintain the SELIC rate at the current level at least until the end of the year. On the one hand, weak growth and the imminence of presidential elections limit the space for any rate hikes. On the other hand, high and increasing inflation leaves practically no room for a monetary easing ahead.
