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September 15, 2021
China | Worse-than-expected growth exposed the vulnerability of anti-virus strategy
The August real economic indicators further confirmed a continuing deceleration growth amid the recent regulation storms as well as the Delta variant virus flare-ups in mainland China as industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment all tumbled.
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August 16, 2021
China | Regulatory storms, Delta variant flare-ups and growth deceleration
The July real economic indicators further confirmed a continuing moderated growth momentum amid the recent regulation storms as well as the Delta variant virus flare-ups in mainland China.
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July 13, 2020
Turkey | Fast recovery in May industrial production
Industrial Production (IP) in May contracted by 20% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, which signals a gradual recovery after the sharp drop of 31% in April. The month-on-month recovery at 17% also proved to be the strongest monthly increase historically. We maintain our GDP growth estimate at 0% for 2020.
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June 24, 2020
U.S. | Commercial real estate in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis
The unprecedented increase in unemployment, large-scale transition to work from home, and lower activity in many face-to-face service industries are leading to demand destruction, higher vacancy rates and rent declines in the Commercial Real Estate (CRE) sector.
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May 15, 2020
Turkey | A sharp adjustment in March Production
Industrial Production (IP) in March contracted by 2% yoy in cal. adj terms as the restrictions to fight the COVID started to hit the economy. Given the assumption of a partial gradual recovery in the second half of the year, we maintain our 2020 GDP growth forecast at 0%.
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December 10, 2019
Peru | Retail Outlook 2019
We estimate that retail sales' growth rate in 2020 will be similar to that of this year. Looking forward, factors such as the demographic boon, higher household purchasing power and the continued growth of online shopping, suggest that retail sales have space to continue growing.
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August 16, 2018
China | Growth slowdown continues
July economic indicators are announced today, together with the previously released credit data, suggesting that growth slowdown continued. In particular, FAI, industrial production and retail sales dropped from the previous readings and below the market expectations. More easing measures of monetary policy and more pro-growth fiscal stimulus are expected in coming months.
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November 8, 2017
Turkey: IP Confirms Robust Activity in 3Q
Industrial production growth was up to 10%, from 2Q’s 4.6%. Adding up to the previous year’s contraction our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 7.9% yoy (94% info) growth for 3Q. Our models suggest strong growth pattern in for the beginning of 4Q as well, in line with our 6% 2017 GDP growth forecast but with risks that could be on the upside.
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October 9, 2017
Turkey: Robust Activity in 3Q
In August, industrial production (IP) growth came in at 5.2% yoy (cal.adj.) and retail sales index’ growth rate accelerated further. As August data signals further acceleration in the economic activity, our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 8.2% growth for 3Q (26% information for September).
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August 8, 2017
Turkey: Strong … and accelerating activity
Annual growth in industrial production (IP) was 3.4% yoy in June (cal. adj.) confirming our robust economic activity forecast for overall 2Q, as IP growth in 2Q reached up to 4.5% yoy from 1Q’s 2.1% reading. Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 5.1% YoY GDP growth in 2Q. We think that risks are on the upside for our 5% growth estimate for 2017.
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December 9, 2016
Turkey: Activity starts to recover
The industrial production (IP) grew by 2% (WDA YoY) in October in line with our forecasts (2%) but slightly above the market call (1.5%). After contracting by 3.2% in the 3Q, IP’s return to growth, although slightly, confirming our expectations of a still modest recovery in 4Q.
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