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July 22, 2021
In 2021 and 2022, economic growth will be driven by the strong dynamism of internal demand and the global economy. Transitory factors will put pressure on inflation and the risk that it will take time to return, with higher activity, will lead the Central Bank to begin a tightening cycle of rates in late 2021.
March 6, 2015
Real exchange rates exhibit important low-frequency ‡ fluctuations. This makes the analysis of real exchange rates at all frequencies a more sound exercise than the typical business cycle one, which compares actual and simulated data after the Hodrick-Prescott …lter is applied to both. A simple two-country, two-good, international real business cycle model can explain the volatility of the real exchange rate when all frequencies are studied. The puzzle is that the model generates too much persistence of the real exchange rate instead of too little, as the business cycle analysis asserts. We show that the introduction of input adjustment costs in production, cointegrated productivity shocks across countries, and lower home bias allows us to reconcile theory and this feature of the data. JEL: E32, F32, F33, F41.
