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February 5, 2025
The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 51.4% of GDP at the end of 2024. We expect this indicator of public debt-to-GDP ratio to be 53.1% at year-end.
December 19, 2024
Fiscal consolidation is expected to accelerate in the final quarter of the year, bringing the public deficit closer to 3.0% of GDP. Fiscal adjustment in 2025 and 2026 will depend on the implementation of the new fiscal rules and the effectiveness of tax measures.
August 16, 2024
A fiscal consolidation that would imply a public deficit of 3.0% of GDP (-3.5% of PSBR) is expected for next year, which would occur with a primary surplus and financial cost of 0.4% and 3.4% of GDP, respectively.
August 2, 2024
The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 47.2% of GDP at the end of the first semester. We anticipate that this balance will be 50.8% by year-end.
July 2, 2024
The surprise at the end of 2023 introduced a positive bias in deficit forecasts for 2024. Improved activity and the withdrawal of measures to mitigate rising prices could bring the public deficit below 3% of GDP. Fiscal improvement in 2025 will depend on new fiscal rules.
January 19, 2024
2023 deficit estimate remains at around 4,1% of GDP. In 2024 with the prolongation of the Central Government Budget and part of the anti-crisis measures, the deficit would be reduced to 3.7% of GDP. This scenario points to a smooth downward path in public debt ratio to 105% of GDP.
October 9, 2023
Pro-cyclical policies and threats to the viability of the eurozone are two obstacles that are best avoided as we move forward. What’s left of the fiscal consolidation process is certainly significant and there should first be a consensus on how best achieve it.
September 11, 2023
The 2024 Economic Package was built with realistic macroeconomic assumptions. The fiscal equilibrium will be maintained in spite of such package setting a target of -1.2% of GDP for next year’s primary balance.
September 4, 2023
The central government has subsidized the interest payable by the regional governments by guaranteeing them interest rates below what they would have paid had they borrowed on the market. The higher the debt incurred, the larger the transfer from central to regional government.
