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April 2, 2025
The 2026 General Economic Policy Pre-Criteria confirm the intention of the federal government to regain fiscal discipline by setting a target of 0.6% of GDP for the primary surplus and look to achieve stability around 52.3% of GDP for public debt in 2025 and 2026, sending a positive signal.
February 5, 2025
The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 51.4% of GDP at the end of 2024. We expect this indicator of public debt-to-GDP ratio to be 53.1% at year-end.
November 16, 2024
A lower deficit will promote more stability of the public debt-to-GDP ratio in the future, but the optimistic assumption of economic growth prompts us to foresee a Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) of 52.9% vs. 51.4% of GDP anticipated by the Finance Ministry.
November 4, 2024
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just published its three flagship reports analyzing the state of play and policy recommendations on the economy (WEO), fiscal policy (Fiscal Monitor) and the financial environment (GFSR). Excellent readings with very elaborate recommendations.
August 16, 2024
A fiscal consolidation that would imply a public deficit of 3.0% of GDP (-3.5% of PSBR) is expected for next year, which would occur with a primary surplus and financial cost of 0.4% and 3.4% of GDP, respectively.
August 2, 2024
The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 47.2% of GDP at the end of the first semester. We anticipate that this balance will be 50.8% by year-end.
July 2, 2024
The surprise at the end of 2023 introduced a positive bias in deficit forecasts for 2024. Improved activity and the withdrawal of measures to mitigate rising prices could bring the public deficit below 3% of GDP. Fiscal improvement in 2025 will depend on new fiscal rules.
July 1, 2024
Spain has managed to stay out of the Excessive Deficit Procedure and has no significant economic imbalances, according to the recent European Semester assessment. However, the Commission still identifies important challenges regarding fiscal consolidation and improving future economic performance for sustained growth.
May 3, 2024
Spain has committed to undertake a huge fiscal adjustment over the next few years. While the impact on the economy will depend on its composition, evidence suggests that it may be significant. Even if this is not the case, it will create social tension.
