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July 2, 2024
The surprise at the end of 2023 introduced a positive bias in deficit forecasts for 2024. Improved activity and the withdrawal of measures to mitigate rising prices could bring the public deficit below 3% of GDP. Fiscal improvement in 2025 will depend on new fiscal rules.
March 28, 2023
The latest budget execution data confirm that during the latter part of 2022 the path of adjustment slowed down and the estimate of 3.9% of GDP for the public deficit in 2022 and 2023 is maintained. In a no-policy-change scenario, the cycle will reduce the deficit to 3.3% of GDP in 2024.
October 25, 2022
Sound budget execution data lead to an improvement in the public deficit forecast to 4.2% of GDP in 2022 and 4.4% in 2023. The reduction of the imbalance will be limited by announced or prolonged measures, by the impact of inflation on spending and by the effect that the slowdown may have
July 26, 2022
Sound budget execution data introduce positive biases on the deficit forecast in 2022, while the slowdown in activity in 2023 will dampen the cyclical recovery of the government balance. Deficit projections are revised to 5.5% of GDP in 2022 and 5.4% in 2023.
May 9, 2022
The forecasts of the Stability Program point to a fairly strong recovery, with GDP growth above potential, but the public accounts suggest a cyclical improvement of the deficit rather than its structural component.
April 22, 2022
2021 closed with a deficit of 6.8% of GDP, the same as estimated three months ago. The invasion of Ukraine and measures to mitigate the rise in energy prices slow down the adjustment, and the deficit is expected to fall to 6.0% in 2022. In 2023, the deficit would fall to 4.6% of GDP.
January 28, 2022
The latest budget execution data lead to a revision of the deficit to 6.8% in 2021 and 4.8% in 2022. In 2023, the cyclical recovery of activity will favour the correction of the public deficit to 3.0%. Implementation of the Recovery Plan remains sluggish, and support will take time to reach households and firms.
December 20, 2021
One of the roles of Social Security is to provide insurance in the form of retirement pensions. Society is faced with the challenge of ensuring that Social Security provides this social policy through a sustainable and adequate pension system.
November 2, 2021
Good budgetary implementation data introduce positive biases on the deficit scenario, and the forecast is revised to 7.0% of GDP in 2021 and 5.0% in 2022. The expected impact of the Recovery Plan in 2021 is downgraded and carried forward to the following years.
July 26, 2021
Positive development on tax collection and a lower impact of the pandemic introduce biases in the deficit forecasts, which are revised to 7.7% of GDP in 2021 and 5.5% in 2022. The approval of the Recovery Plan and the suspension of fiscal rules anticipate that fiscal policy will remain expansionary.
April 28, 2021
The 2020 health crisis resulted in a large deficit of 10.1% of GDP and pushed public debt up to 120%. Going forward, fiscal policy will be conditioned by the suspension of fiscal rules and the arrival of Recovery funds, which suggests that it will remain expansionary.
January 27, 2021
The expenditure growth stabilization and the strength shown by taxes, lead to lower the deficit forecast for 2020 to 11.5% of GDP. The Recovery funds represent an opportunity to favor fiscal adjustment and resume the downward path of public debt.
