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January 4, 2019
Markets started 2019 on the wrong foot, but the market mood improved as the week went by. Doubts about the global slowdown were fed by the release of worsening confidence data in China and in the US. However, today’s fresh news about the trade tensions and the release of job figures in the US totally offset the sluggish data in the EZ, and improved the situation.
January 3, 2019
Risk aversion mood persisted today as fears of a global slowdown increased. Apple’s reduced revenue outlook, which it attributed largely to China’s slowdown, as well as trade tensions added to yesterday’s release of disappointing Chinese confidence data. Furthermore, US manufacturing confidence data, at its lowest in two years, also point in this direction
January 2, 2019
Markets have started 2019 on the wrong foot, as doubts about China’s economy added to the already deteriorated environment in which the market ended 2018. The release of worse-than-expected confidence indices for China extended the risk-off mood in markets as it increased the odds of a potential global slowdown, triggering demand for safe-haven assets across the board.
May 23, 2016
The slight worsening of composite PMI in May reflects a fall in confidence in the industrial sector, which continues to suffer due to the weakness of global demand and the uncertainty in Europe, while services expectations remain stable. Overall, today’s data point to the expected moderation of GDP growth in 2Q16 to rates of around 0.3% QoQ.
April 22, 2016
The stability of PMIs in April indicates that the Eurozone’s recovery continues to advance at a modest yet stable pace, resisting the increased uncertainty of the last months but without any clear sign of higher growth in the following months.
February 22, 2016
PMIs have fallen in February, since doubts concerning orders from abroad have resurged, hampering the growth of the manufacturing sector, whose index fell 1.3 points in the eurozone and more than 2 points in Germany. Services expectations have also worsened. The data added a downward bias to our forecast of 0.4% QoQ for the first quarter.
January 22, 2016
The fall of almost one point of PMIs in January suggests that the euro area economy suffers from the increased uncertainty, although activity continued to show some resistance supported by the tailwinds. In addition, a further improvement in export orders partly dispels fears of the impact of the global slowdown, although the downward pressure on prices increases.
December 16, 2015
The PMIs have closed a positive fourth quarter, despite a slight fall in December due to the moderation of services, and maintain a bullish outlook for the coming months thanks to rising orders and backlogs of work. Disparities persist between weak growth in France and stronger recovery in Germany and the periphery.
November 23, 2015
PMIs improved in November, with Germany as the locomotive, due to returning optimism about orders from abroad, despite the recent events in Paris seem to have had an impact on business confidence in France. Especially relevant is the increase in the rate of job creation in November.
August 21, 2015
In August, the PMI recovers to the highest level registered in June, which signals a steady but moderate growth in Q3. The service sector recovery and the stability in manufacturing are behind this rebound. By country, growth accelerates in Germany as well as in the periphery, while France continues to show signs of weakness
July 24, 2015
The composite PMI in the eurozone fell in July to 53.7, with Germany losing some traction and France showing signs of weakness, although growth remains at the periphery. Behind this could be the doubts related to the latest developments in Greece and the slowdown in global demand
June 23, 2015
In June, the PMI indicates a widespread cross-sector expansion of activity at the highest rate in four years, despite the Greek crisis. By country, growth remains robust in Germany and in the periphery, and is recovering in France. The depreciation of the euro and lower oil prices continue to encourage both overseas orders and domestic demand
