Peru GDP

The Peruvian economy will grow 12,2% in 2021. Activity has been showing relatively favorable performance, a positive surprise. However, the deterioration of confidence will weaken this impulse looking forward and, together with lesser external tailwinds, will result in a 2,3% growth of economic activity in 2022.

We expect the Peruvian economy to grow 10% in 2021 and 4,8% next year, supported by a favourable external context. These forecasts are strongly conditioned to the maintenance of macroeconomic stability by the new government administration and largely reflect a rebound after the sharp output contraction in 2020.

In April, GDP contracted by 40.5% YoY compared to the same month last year. Among the main components of GDP, the fall was almost general.

Peru is one of the hardest hit countries by COVID in Latin America, with the second highest number of cases per million and near the top in mortality as well. We estimate that the contagion rate has been declining in recent days, but need to wait and see if the trend consolidates given the reopening of the economy.