Nowcast

We introduce a set of Big Data indicators to mimic Investment in Real Time and High Definition. We use aggregate information of BBVA Big Data from firm-to-firm transactions and complement with individual-to-firm information. The results are successful and are validated through multiple robustness checks.

The Spanish economy could contract by 11.5% in 2020 and grow by 7% in 2021. The drop in activity could exceed 20% in 1H20. However, the easing of restrictions has allowed the recovery to begin. GDP could increase by 10% quarter on quarter in 3Q20.

Industrial production in July grew by 14.5% yoy (cal.adj.). Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 5.1% GDP growth for 2Q and hints even higher performance for 3Q. Considering also an acceleration in 3Q with both base impact and enhanced activity, we believe that the risks on our 5% GDP growth expectation for 2017 are clearly on the upside.

Recovery in IP continues with the support from both exporting and domestic demand oriented sectors. We expect the GDP growth in 2Q to accelerate even further, as early signals from May suggest a growth rate close to 6%. Turkish lira stabilized at 3.50-3.55 band as global and local factors balance each other and the CBRT maintains its hawkish tone