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BBVA Research

Nowcast latest publications

Colombia | BBVA GDP Tracker, July 2023

BBVA Research, through its GDP Tracker tool, monitors the performance of the economy in real time and makes short-term GDP forecasts. For the second quarter, the GDP tracker forecasts YoY GDP growth between 0.1% and 1.3%. In addition, for the third quarter, growth is forecast to be between 1.1% and 2.2%.

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November 19, 2021

Big Data techniques used

Turkey | Big Data presentation at the Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve and Bank of Italy

BBVA Research present at the Conference on Non-traditional Data, Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing in Macroeconomics. We show evidence that Big Data from financial transactions is very useful for Nowcasting models of consumption and investment and reinforces the power of our traditional models.

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October 14, 2020

Big Data techniques used

Global | Investment in Real Time and High Definition: A Big Data Approach

We introduce a set of Big Data indicators to mimic Investment in Real Time and High Definition. We use aggregate information of BBVA Big Data from firm-to-firm transactions and complement with individual-to-firm information. The results are successful and are validated through multiple robustness checks.

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July 14, 2020

Spain Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2020

The Spanish economy could contract by 11.5% in 2020 and grow by 7% in 2021. The drop in activity could exceed 20% in 1H20. However, the easing of restrictions has allowed the recovery to begin. GDP could increase by 10% quarter on quarter in 3Q20.

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November 14, 2019

Turkey | The Economic Recovery Accelerates

The Industrial Production (IP) increased by 3.4% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in September, slightly higher than median market expectation. We maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0.3% for now, but the pace of acceleration puts strong upside risks on our expectation around 1%. Our forecast for 2020 remains neutral at 3%.

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November 5, 2019

Big Data techniques used

Nowcasting Turkish unemployment using real time data from Google

Turkish unemployment data is published with a significant delay (nearly three months), making it difficult to analyze the labor market in advance. In order to assess the evolution of the unemployment in high frequency, we have developed a dynamic model combining both the Business Cycle and Google searches for jobs.

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October 23, 2019

Big Data techniques used

INE - European Statistics Day: BBVA Research experience using Big Data

Big data techniques help us to enrich traditional databases with high dimensional data, but there are still some challenges we have to face. Real time data, combined with historical data may end up changing the way in which economists approach empirical questions and the tools they use to answer them.

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September 8, 2017

Turkey: Activity accelerates further

Industrial production in July grew by 14.5% yoy (cal.adj.). Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 5.1% GDP growth for 2Q and hints even higher performance for 3Q. Considering also an acceleration in 3Q with both base impact and enhanced activity, we believe that the risks on our 5% GDP growth expectation for 2017 are clearly on the upside.

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July 4, 2017

Turkey Monthly Economic Monitor | June

Recovery in IP continues with the support from both exporting and domestic demand oriented sectors. We expect the GDP growth in 2Q to accelerate even further, as early signals from May suggest a growth rate close to 6%. Turkish lira stabilized at 3.50-3.55 band as global and local factors balance each other and the CBRT maintains its hawkish tone

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April 26, 2016

U.S. | Real GDP Growth Nowcast: 0.55% for 1Q16

Nowcast model predicts 0.55% for 1Q16 real GDP growth. The modest forecast may be affected by residual seasonality

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