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March 20, 2025
Credit growth accelerated throughout February beyond the growth caps. Therefore, the monthly growth limit has been reduced further for FC lending at the start of March. The CBRT aims not to allow demand conditions to contain the disinflation process, signaling new macro-prudential measures if necessary.
February 11, 2025
Profitability and NIMs of the sector have started to improve in 4Q24, which will continue with the rate-cutting cycle of the CBRT. The monetary stance remains to be supported with the macro-prudential measures. We expect the ROE of deposit banks to barely improve to 30% by end 2025 from 28.4% at the end of 2024.
December 20, 2024
The weekly growth of FX-adjusted credits accelerated from 0.3% to 1%. The acceleration was due to both consumer and commercial credits in the sector. Its 4w trend continued to move upwards for the 3rd week in a row and reached almost 0.7% (highest since June’24).
December 6, 2024
Profitability and NIMs of the banking sector stay under pressure due to high funding and RR costs and regulatory lending caps We expect the easing cycle of the CBRT to be a cautious combination of both rate cuts and easing over deposit and credit rules, helping the sector recover gradually 1Q25 onwards.
November 15, 2024
Since Nov 8th was the day for finalizing credit growth monthly caps, the weekly growth of FX-adjusted credits decelerated further from 0.5% to 0.2% due to consumer credits in the sector. 4w trend rate of total credit growth remained stable at 0.4%.
November 8, 2024
On the week of 1st November, the weekly growth of FX-adjusted credits slightly decelerated from 0.6% to 0.5% due to both consumer and commercial credits in the sector. However, last 2 weeks’ push moved up the trend rate of total credit growth a bit.
October 25, 2024
On the week of 18th October, the weekly growth of FX-adjusted credits decelerated sharply from 0.2% to 0.05% led by the contraction in consumer credits of public banks. Trend rate of total credit growth continued to move down as well.
October 11, 2024
The weekly growth of FX-adjusted credits decelerated in the first week of October from 1% to 0.4% due to both consumer and commercial credits in the overall sector. The upward move in total credits’ both 4 week and 13w trend rates imply though only a moderation in credit growth.
