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November 29, 2024
Turkish economy experienced a mild recession, in line with our expectations, contracting by 0.2% q/q in 3Q24 (vs. -0.2% q/q in 2Q24) and posting 2.1 y/y growth. Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts point to a weak quarterly GDP growth for 4Q24, which could result nearly 3% y/y in 2024.
May 31, 2024
Turkish economy grew by 5.7% y/y in 1Q above the market consensus of 5.5% but lower than our expectation of 6%. Given the strong performance of 1H24 and lagged effects of expected fiscal consolidation and monetary policy, risks start to be tilted to the upside for our 2024 GDP forecast of 3.5%.
November 30, 2021
Turkish economy grew by 7.4% yoy in 3Q21, resulting in a growth rate of 11.7% in the first three quarters of the year. 2021 GDP growth will likely reach 10.5-11%, beating our current 9.5% forecast. Though, recent currency shock and accompanying tighter financial conditions will likely weigh on the downside for 2022 growth.
February 13, 2020
Industrial Production (IP) grew by 8.6% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, surprising expectations on the upside in December (7% BBVA Research vs. 6.6% market median). Thus, IP growth accelerated to 5.8% yoy in 4Q19 after its yearly contraction of 0.5% in 3Q19. 2019 GDP growth will likely be materialized at above 0.5% yoy.
