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November 21, 2024
The CBRT kept the policy rate at 50% with important changes in their communication, signaling an easing cycle as early as December. We believe the CBRT will be required to start with very cautious steps and expect the first rate cut in December with 100bps.
October 17, 2024
The Central Bank (CBRT) kept the policy rate, keeping a tone similar to September MPC, despite the negative surprise of the September inflation. We maintain our first rate cut expectation in December with a 250 bps cut, where the timing and magnitude would depend on how the monthly inflation trend is improving.
September 19, 2024
The Central Bank kept the policy rate unchanged at 50%. The bank smoothed its tone by changing the statement that monetary policy will be tightened when necessary to that monetary policy tools will be used effectively. Still, they emphasize inflation expectations and pricing behaviors as risks to the disinflation.
August 20, 2024
The Central Bank (CBRT) kept the policy rate at 50% in line with the expectations. They repeat their commitment to support monetary transmission mechanism via additional macro-prudential measures if needed.
June 27, 2024
After a weak GDP growth of 0.4% in 2023, activity will grow 3.2% in 2024 due to the recovery of the agricultural sector, hydroelectric power generation and private consumption. Even so, reforms are needed to gain competitiveness and maintain a sustainable growth path.
April 20, 2022
The transmission lag of monetary policy to the price level is five and two quarters for the US and Mexican economies, respectively. A surprise of 50 basis points in the reference rate would reduce the price level by 0.54% and 0.14% in the US and Mexico, respectively.
May 6, 2021
The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) kept the policy rate (one-week repo) at 19% in line with the expectations. Given the worsened inflation outlook, the CBRT tries to manage by eliminating any early rate cut expectations thus, we expect an easing cycle only very gradually in late 3Q and end the year with 16% policy rate.
September 24, 2020
The Central Bank of Turkey raised the policy rate by 200bps to 10.25%. The CBRT justifies decision with the inflationary pressures coming from a strong path of the economic recovery (in line with our view) and supply-side effects due to the recent exchange rate depreciation.
June 23, 2020
Yet, we continue to expect Banxico to cut the policy rate until it reaches c. 0% real levels by year-end ie, 3.0% to 3.5%. The Board’s concerns on the ER should have eased in the intermeeting period.
April 21, 2020
Banxico should speed up its slow pace of easing and implement additional liquidity measures. There is scope for both further cuts in the policy rate and implementing additional liquidity support measures.
