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October 24, 2024
US | Treasury yields rebound as hard-landing chances drop off the radar
The market is far from having ruled out the possibility of further rate cuts though. Upcoming jobs and inflation data are likely to favor the view that the economy is expanding at a healthy pace rather than overheating, potentially leading to a modest decline in long-term yields.
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October 21, 2024
Latam | Low growth: not just a fleeting phenomenon
In recent years, the main economies of Latin America have successfully achieved a rapid and marked adjustment in their monetary policy in an attempt to curb rising inflation. Today, most of them have inflation at around their average for the last 10 years.
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October 21, 2024
Spain | What can go wrong?
As part of the long tradition of calling economics the “dismal” science, I would like to review some of the risk scenarios facing the Spanish economy, now that BBVA Research has raised its GDP growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 2.9% and 2.4%, respectively.
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October 17, 2024
Türkiye | The CBRT keeps a similar tone to Sep MPC
The Central Bank (CBRT) kept the policy rate, keeping a tone similar to September MPC, despite the negative surprise of the September inflation. We maintain our first rate cut expectation in December with a 250 bps cut, where the timing and magnitude would depend on how the monthly inflation trend is improving.
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October 16, 2024
Europe | Inflation converging to target, growth in play
The European Central Bank (ECB) can take satisfaction from recent inflation data from the eurozone. Much of the downside surprise has been due to the drop in oil, but there is also some progress in services prices. Coupled with economic weakness, the scenario is a further interest rate cut.
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October 11, 2024
Peru | BCRP surprises by pausing the monetary normalization process
In its October meeting, the Board of the Central Bank decided to maintain the policy rate at 5.25%, surprising the consensus that had anticipated a further 25-basis-point cut. The monetary policy stance, understood as the ex-ante real reference rate, remains contractionary.
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October 11, 2024
Argentina | Inflation was 3.5% MoM in September, the lowest monthly level in 34 months
National inflation was 3.5% MoM (209% YoY) in September, in line with the average expectation of market analysts (BCRA consensus: 3.5%). This is the first time since Feb-22 that monthly inflation has breached the 4.0% floor.
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October 4, 2024
Türkiye Economic Outlook. October 2024
Restrictive monetary policy and tight financial conditions lead output gap to turn into negative in 3Q24. Fiscal consolidation is projected for 2025, which could provide room for a gradual monetary easing. Overall, the policy mix will become more restrictive, potentially curbing GDP growth to below 3% in 2025.
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October 3, 2024
Peru Economic Outlook. October 2024
GDP will grow 2.9% this year and 2.7% in 2025. Private spending will gain traction in the coming quarters, supported by more favourable financial conditions, the impact of private pension funds withdrawals, and the beginning of construction of some infrastructure projects, while public spending will moderate.
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October 1, 2024
Argentina Economic Outlook. October 2024
The government maintains a firm commitment to fiscal balance while upholding a "zero monetary issuance" policy for all items arising from the public sector. The slowdown in inflation has stalled since May, remaining around 4% monthly, and economic activity shows signs that the recession may have ended in Q2 2024.
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