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November 15, 2024
A majority will remain determined to continue the easing cycle over the coming months, but we now expect Banxico to lower the policy rate to 8.00% by the end of next year (up from our previous 7.50% forecast).
November 12, 2024
Banxico is likely set to cut the policy rate by 25 bps this week in a backdrop of easing core services inflation, which is starting to turn a corner amid a challenging context for economic activity.
November 8, 2024
In its November meeting, the Board of the Central Bank decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.00%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the real ex-ante reference rate, remains above neutral.
November 8, 2024
We continue to think that the rate cut cycle still has legs, but following the outcome of the election the Fed will likely end the cycle sooner than previously thought on greater inflationary challenges under Trump’s potential policies.
November 5, 2024
FOMC members will likely continue to signal that their plan continues to be a gradual normalization of the fed funds rate. They are likely to agree to continue normalizing the monetary stance with more cautious 25bp rate cuts.
November 1, 2024
The Board of Banrep reduced its monetary policy rate by 50 bps, bringing it to 9.75%. This decision was split, with 4 members in favor of the 50 bp reduction and three members voting for a larger reduction of 75 bp. The balance reached at the last meeting remain unchanged.
October 24, 2024
The market is far from having ruled out the possibility of further rate cuts though. Upcoming jobs and inflation data are likely to favor the view that the economy is expanding at a healthy pace rather than overheating, potentially leading to a modest decline in long-term yields.
October 21, 2024
In recent years, the main economies of Latin America have successfully achieved a rapid and marked adjustment in their monetary policy in an attempt to curb rising inflation. Today, most of them have inflation at around their average for the last 10 years.
October 21, 2024
As part of the long tradition of calling economics the “dismal” science, I would like to review some of the risk scenarios facing the Spanish economy, now that BBVA Research has raised its GDP growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 2.9% and 2.4%, respectively.
October 17, 2024
The Central Bank (CBRT) kept the policy rate, keeping a tone similar to September MPC, despite the negative surprise of the September inflation. We maintain our first rate cut expectation in December with a 250 bps cut, where the timing and magnitude would depend on how the monthly inflation trend is improving.
October 16, 2024
The European Central Bank (ECB) can take satisfaction from recent inflation data from the eurozone. Much of the downside surprise has been due to the drop in oil, but there is also some progress in services prices. Coupled with economic weakness, the scenario is a further interest rate cut.
