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Banrep's Board maintained the pace of rate cuts of the last meetings, with a 50bp reduction in June, accumulating a total of 200bp since it began its downward rate cycle in December 2023. The decision was split, with 4 members in favor of the 50bp reduction, two members in favor of a 75bp reduction.
Board members voted 4-1 to hold rates steady at 11.00%. The fact that the decision wasn’t unanimous came as a bit of surprise considering the recent peso weakening and that Banxico was set to revise up its short-term headline inflation forecasts.
The Central Bank kept the policy rate at 50% in line with expectations. We expect that annual inflation will come down to 45-50% by September on base effects before ending the year at 43%. We believe that there would be only a limited room to s…
Mid- and long-term Treasury yields eased further from their late-April’s highs on a less hawkish than expected Fed in this month’s meeting, and fresh signs that the inflation jump in 1Q will prove transitory.
Banxico will most likely suggest it will proceed with caution, at least until more information is available about the judicial reform and the type of fiscal adjustment that will be implemented next year to fulfill the federal government’s commi…
In its June decision, the Board of the Central Bank decided maintain the reference rate at 5.75%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the real ex-ante reference rate, remains in restrictive territory.
With the fed funds rate at its peak, growing chances of disinflation resuming in 2Q24 and more balanced risks, the Fed is likely to remain cautious in determining the timing of a first rate cut.
The committed actions against inflation are well-received. Foreign currency demand of residents prior to the March local election has reversed and foreigners’ inflow for Turkish assets has accelerated. Yet, lagging fiscal measures & macro-prude…
Intermeeting developments will likely not change the already-conveyed Fed message that more good data is needed to gain enough confidence in progress toward 2% inflation; the debate around the policy stance will continue to focus on for how lon…
Since the beginning of 2020, the loss of purchasing power, measured by the increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has been almost 20%.
The ECB will most likely lower its interest rates at its monetary policy meeting this week. This decision has long been anticipated, suggested at previous meetings, and even clearly accepted in statements by the more hawkish members of the Governing Council.
In recent weeks, high volatility has been observed in financial variables in the United States and, therefore, in much of the world.
