labor market

Output will grow 2,9% this year (previous forecast: 2,7%), supported by a new pension funds withdrawal. Sectors affected by weather anomalies in 2023 will recover and non-primary sectors too thanks to increased private spending. In 2025, once the impact of pension funds withdrawals is exhausted, growth would reach 2,7%.

Formal employment in Mexico continues decelerating, growing 2.2% in May 2024, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. Job creation is expected to pick up in the third quarter but at a slower pace than in 2023.

Social Security affiliation rose more than expected in March (193,600 individuals), but unemployment declined less than forecasted (-33,400). Seasonally adjusted, employment rebounded in Q1 2024 (0.8% quarterly CVEC) and both hiring (-0.9%) and unemployment (-1.9%) decreased.

The Spanish economy is faring better than anyone expected a few months ago. And despite high interest rates, held back by a European economy that has been stagnant and amid heightened uncertainty surrounding economic policy. With all this, GDP growth in Spain (2.1%) still looks set to outstrip the overall eurozone (0.7%).

Despite the labor market's resilience, the slowdown in job creation in 2023 is reflected by the 2.7 million additional jobs, considerably fewer than the previous year. The unemployment rate in December remained at 3.7%, largely explained by the decline in the labor force.

Social Security affiliation increased more than expected in December (29,900), but unemployment fell less than expected (-27,400). Seasonally adjusted, employment rebounded in 4Q23 (0.4% q/q SWDA) and unemployment fell (-0.3% q/q SWDA). The year 2023 closed with 539,700 more affiliated workers and 130,200 fewer unemployed.