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January 7, 2025
Spanish companies have reduced their debt over the past decade, largely due to a contraction in bank credit. The performance of this type of credit has been negatively influenced by demand-side factors, especially weak levels of investment.
December 26, 2024
With Christmas and the start of the new year nearly upon us, it is always good to look back and review what has happened over the last 12 months. My goal here is to do a mea culpa on where we got things wrong when we laid out our economic scenario a year ago.
December 23, 2024
Banking activity, understood as the channeling of savings into investment, is not restricted only to the local market with its domestic sectors, but also a relevant part is carried out by banks in their international activity.
November 29, 2024
Turkish economy experienced a mild recession, in line with our expectations, contracting by 0.2% q/q in 3Q24 (vs. -0.2% q/q in 2Q24) and posting 2.1 y/y growth. Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts point to a weak quarterly GDP growth for 4Q24, which could result nearly 3% y/y in 2024.
November 22, 2024
Colombia's GDP grew 2.0% year-on-year in Q3 2024, driven by investment in civil works and machinery, though with moderate private consumption and a decline in public consumption. Growth is projected at 2.0% for 2024, with gradual acceleration in 2025, led by investment and goods consumption.
November 19, 2024
Colombia's economy advanced in Q3 2024, with investment outpacing GDP and service exports reaching record highs. Private consumption showed a mixed dynamic, while public consumption detracted from growth. The GDP growth projection for 2024 remains at 2.0%.
November 15, 2024
Sectoral focus is crucial for Colombia's economic recovery, but this requires investment. In Colombia and globally, financing is largely reliant on own resources and bank loans, overlooking the potential of capital markets to fuel sectoral growth.
November 11, 2024
In contrast to the dynamism of government expenditures and service exports observed in recent years, the poor performance of private consumption stands out, only slightly better than that of investment.
October 21, 2024
As part of the long tradition of calling economics the “dismal” science, I would like to review some of the risk scenarios facing the Spanish economy, now that BBVA Research has raised its GDP growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 2.9% and 2.4%, respectively.
October 15, 2024
GDP growth forecasts have been revised upwards by 0.4 percentage points for 2024 to reach 2.9%, and by 0.3 pp for 2025 to reach 2.4%. This is due to statistical revisions of historical data, recent developments more favorable than expected, and improved estimates of external and internal demand contributions.
October 7, 2024
Despite uncertainty and high interest rates, investment remains strong in countries like the U.S. and France, especially in intellectual property and ICT, but not in Spain, Canada, and most emerging markets. GDP growth remains key, but digitalization and climate transition policies will drive future investment.
September 23, 2024
After a year of work, Mario Draghi has just presented the report commissioned by Ursula von der Leyen to kick-start EU productivity and competitiveness. This joins an earlier, though equally essential, report by Enrico Letta.
