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February 11, 2025
Profitability and NIMs of the sector have started to improve in 4Q24, which will continue with the rate-cutting cycle of the CBRT. The monetary stance remains to be supported with the macro-prudential measures. We expect the ROE of deposit banks to barely improve to 30% by end 2025 from 28.4% at the end of 2024.
December 20, 2024
The Board of Banrep reduced its monetary policy rate by 25 bps, bringing it to 9.50%. This decision was split: 5 members in favor of the 25 bp reduction, one in favor of a 50 bp reduction and one in favor of a 75 bp reduction. This is an important change in the Board's stance, after 6 meetings with rate cuts of 50bp.
December 16, 2024
2024 has been less challenging for central banks as the disinflation process consolidates, building confidence in achieving the 2% inflation target. In 2025, the challenges will be greater and the debates more intense.
December 12, 2024
As expected, today the ECB lowered interest rates by 25bp and revised down growth and inflation forecasts. Lagarde did not give many clues on the next steps but reaffirmed that the disinflationary process is on track. We maintain four more cuts for the first half of 2025 to 2% (depo).
December 4, 2024
Growth will be around 3% for the third consecutive year in 2024, but a slowdown ahead is likely, driven by a less supportive global environment and higher-than-anticipated SELIC rates. The balance of risks has recently worsened, reflecting global factors and rising concerns over fiscal imbalances.
October 21, 2024
In recent years, the main economies of Latin America have successfully achieved a rapid and marked adjustment in their monetary policy in an attempt to curb rising inflation. Today, most of them have inflation at around their average for the last 10 years.
October 18, 2024
Since Oct 11th was the day for finalizing credit growth monthly caps, the weekly growth of FX-adjusted credits decelerated further to 0.2% from 0.4% mainly on top of commercial credits in the overall sector, which brought down the trend rate of total credit growth as well.
October 17, 2024
The ECB cut its key interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected, following signals given by Lagarde in September in her speech at the European Parliament, due to lower inflation and weak activity data. We expect another 25 basis point cut in December.
