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December 20, 2024
Colombia | Banco de la Republica reduced its policy rate by 25 bp to 9.50%
The Board of Banrep reduced its monetary policy rate by 25 bps, bringing it to 9.50%. This decision was split: 5 members in favor of the 25 bp reduction, one in favor of a 50 bp reduction and one in favor of a 75 bp reduction. This is an important change in the Board's stance, after 6 meetings with rate cuts of 50bp.
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December 16, 2024
Europe | 2025, a challenging year for central banks
2024 has been less challenging for central banks as the disinflation process consolidates, building confidence in achieving the 2% inflation target. In 2025, the challenges will be greater and the debates more intense.
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December 12, 2024
Europe | Easing path on track
As expected, today the ECB lowered interest rates by 25bp and revised down growth and inflation forecasts. Lagarde did not give many clues on the next steps but reaffirmed that the disinflationary process is on track. We maintain four more cuts for the first half of 2025 to 2% (depo).
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December 4, 2024
Brazil Economic Outlook. December 2024
Growth will be around 3% for the third consecutive year in 2024, but a slowdown ahead is likely, driven by a less supportive global environment and higher-than-anticipated SELIC rates. The balance of risks has recently worsened, reflecting global factors and rising concerns over fiscal imbalances.
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October 21, 2024
Latam | Low growth: not just a fleeting phenomenon
In recent years, the main economies of Latin America have successfully achieved a rapid and marked adjustment in their monetary policy in an attempt to curb rising inflation. Today, most of them have inflation at around their average for the last 10 years.
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October 18, 2024
Türkiye: Weekly Banking Tracker, 11 October 2024
Since Oct 11th was the day for finalizing credit growth monthly caps, the weekly growth of FX-adjusted credits decelerated further to 0.2% from 0.4% mainly on top of commercial credits in the overall sector, which brought down the trend rate of total credit growth as well.
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October 17, 2024
Europe | ECB hastens the easing cycle
The ECB cut its key interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected, following signals given by Lagarde in September in her speech at the European Parliament, due to lower inflation and weak activity data. We expect another 25 basis point cut in December.
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October 16, 2024
Europe | Inflation converging to target, growth in play
The European Central Bank (ECB) can take satisfaction from recent inflation data from the eurozone. Much of the downside surprise has been due to the drop in oil, but there is also some progress in services prices. Coupled with economic weakness, the scenario is a further interest rate cut.
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October 7, 2024
Global | Controlled slowdown in a turbulent environment
Looking at the performance of the global economy, it is striking to see the difference between the relative success of central banks and policymakers in achieving a soft landing for both growth and inflation, and the immense uncertainty resulting from the political and geopolitical environment.
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