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November 15, 2024
A majority will remain determined to continue the easing cycle over the coming months, but we now expect Banxico to lower the policy rate to 8.00% by the end of next year (up from our previous 7.50% forecast).
November 12, 2024
Banxico is likely set to cut the policy rate by 25 bps this week in a backdrop of easing core services inflation, which is starting to turn a corner amid a challenging context for economic activity.
November 8, 2024
We continue to think that the rate cut cycle still has legs, but following the outcome of the election the Fed will likely end the cycle sooner than previously thought on greater inflationary challenges under Trump’s potential policies.
November 5, 2024
FOMC members will likely continue to signal that their plan continues to be a gradual normalization of the fed funds rate. They are likely to agree to continue normalizing the monetary stance with more cautious 25bp rate cuts.
October 24, 2024
The market is far from having ruled out the possibility of further rate cuts though. Upcoming jobs and inflation data are likely to favor the view that the economy is expanding at a healthy pace rather than overheating, potentially leading to a modest decline in long-term yields.
October 16, 2024
In August, both deposits and credit rose in annual terms with respect to July, supported, in part, by the accounting effect of the exchange rate depreciation. Companies and other financial intermediaries were behind the increase in deposits, while consumer and business credit supported credit.
September 27, 2024
In a backdrop of an “improving” inflation outlook and worsening growth prospects, a majority of members seem to think the central bank has ample wiggle room to cut rates. The forward guidance now strongly suggests that Banxico is set to embark in a streak of consecutive rate cuts ahead.
September 26, 2024
Long-term yields have ceased from being driven by changes in inflation compensation, but they could decline markedly if markets begin to price in that the Fed will need to lower rates below neutral to avoid a recession.
September 24, 2024
In view of the lags of monetary policy, we think that Banxico is already late in adjusting the excessively high real ex-ante rate, and thus, the monetary policy stance is set to continue to weigh on the economy in the coming quarters.
September 19, 2024
Fed’s quest to preserve the soft landing began today: it unequivocally confirmed that its focus has shifted to the labor market. It doesn’t look overly concerned about a hard landing, but rather signals its commitment “not to get behind” during the rate cut cycle.
September 17, 2024
Fed’s focus has shifted to the labor market and, in view of monetary policy lags, achieving a soft landing is now its main worry. This means the FOMC will not wait for weak labor market conditions before softening the policy stance.
September 11, 2024
This paper examines the performance of Random Forest models in forecasting short-term monthly inflation in Argentina, based on a database of monthly indicators since 1962.
