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March 25, 2025
Banxico could keep the door open to a third 50bp cut in May before slowing down to more cautious 25bp adjustments. This would strengthen our expectation that Banxico will bring down the policy rate to a below-consensus 7.5% by the end of this year.
March 19, 2025
Powell signaled in the Q&A two complementary factors behind unchanged interest rate projections, which still point to 50bp worth of rate cuts later this year: i) weaker growth but higher inflation which “[...] kind of balance each other out”; and ii) uncertainty.
March 17, 2025
We do not expect either the statement or Powell to hint at a possible rate cut soon amid heightened downside risks to growth and instead expect both to convey that amid lingering uncertainty the Fed remains comfortable in its current wait-and-see mode and is in “no hurry” to resume the rate cut cycle.
February 27, 2025
A recent string of weak data together with the postponement of tariffs and a less worrisome fiscal bill than feared likely eased market participants’ bets of a scenario in which the Fed keeps interest rates at their current level for the whole year.
February 13, 2025
Spanish banks are rapidly translating the reduction in official interest rates to new lending operations' interest rates, which benefits borrowers. In the case of deposits, the transmission is slightly slower than in the hiking cycle, which benefits depositors.
February 6, 2025
It unequivocally signaled that it remains set to keep cutting rates steadily ahead and hinted that in the absence of any major events, it is likely to consider additional 50bp cuts at upcoming meetings.
February 5, 2025
Below 4.0% inflation, easing core services inflation, softer aggregate demand, a cooling labor market, a peso that continues to hold up, and an overly restrictive monetary policy stance, keep the door wide open for a larger 50bp cut.
February 3, 2025
The consumer price index contracted 0.09% m/m in January. The result for the month is mainly explained by the seasonal normalization after the end of the year holidays (price of poultry products and transportation rates). The interannual inflation rate was 1.9% in January.
January 30, 2025
Signs that core inflation is back on trend to 2% could open the door for another cut in March, but the implementation of policies that could spark an upward trend in inflation, even if temporary, could imply a more extended pause.
January 27, 2025
The risk has grown that the Fed could keep rates on hold for more than one meeting as the nature and purpose of the upcoming tariffs is still unknown (i.e., their magnitude, their temporary or permanent nature, used mostly as a negotiating tool?).
January 23, 2025
Further easing of at most 50 bps by year-end is still on the table, but the Fed will likely stay on the sidelines while the uncertainty around renewed immigration policies lingers and until it knows if Trump follows through on his plans to impose tariffs.
December 27, 2024
All but one FOMC member voted last week to continue removing monetary policy restriction through a 25bp cut, but the Fed also signaled a slower pace of further adjustments due to the incipient but increased uncertainty about inflation next year.
