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After 6 months in office, the government has made significant progress in improving the fiscal balance, which in turn resulted in a reduction of monetary issuance and a deceleration of inflation. The challenge now is to consolidate the fiscal surplus and dismantle FX-market restrictions to foster sustainable growth.
After having fallen by more than 7% over the past two years, we expect GDP to grow by 0.9% in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018. The approval of a fiscal reform, lower inflation, declining interest rates, among other reasons, should pave the way for a gradual recovery. However, political tensions and failing to approve the needed socia…
The global outlook has improved slightly, especially in emerging Asia. Slowdown of Latam GDP will end in 2016 (-0.9%) in 2016, with a gradual recovery in 2017 (1.8%). Inflation, though still high in South America, continues to abate in most cou…
