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February 3, 2025
Consumer inflation climbed up to 5.03% m/m, higher than consensus and our expectation (both at 4.3%), while annual inflation declined further to 42.12% on favorable base effects. We maintain our year-end 2025 inflation forecasts of 26.5%, despite the existence of more pronounced upward inflationary risks.
January 3, 2025
Consumer prices rose by %1.03 m/m in December, lower than consensus and our expectations (both at 1.6%), leading year-end annual inflation to reach 44.4%. We maintain our year-end 2025 inflation forecasts of 26.5% on a more balanced risk outlook.
December 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by %2.24 m/m in November, higher than consensus (2.0%), with no improvement in the underlying inflation trend. Considering November realizations, we evaluate annual consumer inflation is likely to finish the year at around 45% and decline to 26.5% in 2025 on our assumption of an effective policy mix.
November 4, 2024
Consumer prices rose by %2.88 m/m in September, higher than our expectation and consensus (2.7% vs. 2.5%), while the monthly consumer inflation trend eased only limitedly. We now expect year-end inflation to be nearly 45% and risks on our 2025 year-end forecast of 25% become clearly tilted to the upside.
October 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by %2.97 m/m in September, higher than our expectation (2.5%). The annual consumer inflation came down below 50% on the back of base effects, while the underlying consumer inflation trend worsened. We expect inflation to decrease to 43% and 25% by the end of 2024 and 2025, respectively.
September 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by %2.47 m/m in August, higher than our expectation (2.2%) and consensus (2.3%). As a result, annual consumer inflation came down to 51.9% from 61.8% previously. We forecast inflation trend to improve; reaching 1.5-2% monthly in 4Q24 and finish the year annually at 43% in 2024 and 25% in 2025.
April 12, 2024
Banco de la República has reduced its policy rate by one percentage point since November 2023. This brings the rate to 12.25%, still a high level, especially considering that March inflation stood at 7.4% and the most recent activity figures point to a stagnant economy.
November 3, 2022
Media is a relevant source of information for households to form their inflation expectations. We identified salient products from CPI basket and built a high frequency news based indicator (GDELT) to monitor the volume of news about “salient” goods prices by geography.
July 14, 2022
We analyze whether China exports inflation to the world and conclude that the answer is not in the short term since the pandemic outbreak but China will contribute to global inflation in the long term.
December 6, 2021
Inflation in November had a monthly variation of 0.50% and reached 5.26% in annual terms. Food for home consumption was once again a protagonist in the month's result, with a monthly variation of 1.45%.
November 8, 2021
Inflation in October had a monthly variation of 0.01% and stood at 4.58% YoY. The fall in the price of goods benefiting from the VAT-free day policy offset the price increases observed in the rest of the basket, mainly in food and related items.
