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May 8, 2025
Recent softness in sentiment is not enough to shift policy as solid demand and stable jobs data support a continued pause. Attention now turns to assess whether this cautious pause could extend deeper into the second half of the year.
May 5, 2025
Amid mixed economic data and the delayed effects of recently imposed tariffs, we expect the Fed to keep the policy rate unchanged this week at its 4.25-4.50% target range; it will likely signal it has room to maintain its policy stance heading into the June meeting.
May 2, 2025
In April 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.32%, exceeding expectations. The increase was driven by seasonal factors related to Easter, which pushed up the prices of fishery products and transportation services. Poultry prices also rose again. In contrast, fuel prices declined.
April 30, 2025
The Board of Banrep reduced the monetary policy rate by 25bp to 9.25% in April. This decision was unanimous. On this occasion, they highlighted that inflation and inflation expectations derived from the debt markets declined.
April 24, 2025
While Trump recently suggested he would not try to remove Powell from his position following last week’s intensified criticism, such threats to institutions underpinning the dollar’s global dominance pose a serious risk to the future of the global financial system.
April 17, 2025
The CBRT hiked the policy rate by 350bps to 46%, surprising the consensus of no change, and narrowed down the interest rate corridor to 44.5%-49%. Contrary to previous assessments of recent shocks as transitory, the CBRT becomes more prudent hiking its main tool and reaching an availability of the funding rate up to 49%.
April 8, 2025
In March 2025 Colombia's total inflation decreased to an annual rate of 5.1% breaking a four-month period of stability or slight increase. This moderation was primarily driven by a decline in non-food inflation, particularly due to the regulated basket. March monthly inflation was 0.52% falling below analysts' expectations.
April 7, 2025
The last months of 2024 gave some glimpses of the challenges Latam could face in the coming years. However, looking beyond the first quarter of 2025, some—albeit not all—of these warning signs have faded.
March 28, 2025
Its confidence in delivering a third big rate cut to keep removing the still very restrictive monetary policy stance as fast as possible will be contingent upon the peso’s orderly trading conditions and the absence of a marked depreciation.
March 27, 2025
While short-term inflation expectations have increased, the Fed doesn't seem troubled for now because “most measures of longer-term expectations remain consistent with [the Fed’s] 2% inflation goal.”
March 25, 2025
Banxico could keep the door open to a third 50bp cut in May before slowing down to more cautious 25bp adjustments. This would strengthen our expectation that Banxico will bring down the policy rate to a below-consensus 7.5% by the end of this year.
March 19, 2025
Powell signaled in the Q&A two complementary factors behind unchanged interest rate projections, which still point to 50bp worth of rate cuts later this year: i) weaker growth but higher inflation which “[...] kind of balance each other out”; and ii) uncertainty.
