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Banrep's Board maintained the pace of rate cuts of the last meetings, with a 50bp reduction in June, accumulating a total of 200bp since it began its downward rate cycle in December 2023. The decision was split, with 4 members in favor of the 50bp reduction, two members in favor of a 75bp reduction.
Board members voted 4-1 to hold rates steady at 11.00%. The fact that the decision wasn’t unanimous came as a bit of surprise considering the recent peso weakening and that Banxico was set to revise up its short-term headline inflation forecasts.
Mid- and long-term Treasury yields eased further from their late-April’s highs on a less hawkish than expected Fed in this month’s meeting, and fresh signs that the inflation jump in 1Q will prove transitory.
Banxico will most likely suggest it will proceed with caution, at least until more information is available about the judicial reform and the type of fiscal adjustment that will be implemented next year to fulfill the federal government’s commi…
The recent increase in inflation, not seen in decades, has shown our aversion to the constant escalation of prices. Although inflation has already fallen, it is expected to stay above 3%, and around 2.5% in 2025, affected by the performance of …
Output will grow 2,9% this year (previous forecast: 2,7%), supported by a new pension funds withdrawal. Sectors affected by weather anomalies in 2023 will recover and non-primary sectors too thanks to increased private spending. In 2025, once the impact of pension funds withdrawals is exhausted, growth would reach 2,7%.
The intensity of political events, in a year plagued by key elections in many regions of the world, as well as two ongoing armed conflicts, contrast with the resilience of the global economy.
GDP growth forecast for 2024 is raised to 2.5% thanks to the good performance of external demand, the increase in the labor force, and the execution of Recovery Plan funds. However, it will moderate to 2.1% in 2025, largely due to constraints i…
INDEC's monthly national inflation stood at 4.2% in May (276.4% y/y), the lowest in the last 29 months and much lower than expected (BBVA: 5.8% m/m, REM-BCRA: 5.2% m/m). Core inflation was the main downward surprise, reaching 3.7% m/m (277.3% y…
Colombia's economic growth will begin to accelerate gradually during the second half of the year. Domestic demand is expected to consolidate by 2025. Growth is projected at 1.8% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025. Inflation will continue to decrease, ena…
With the fed funds rate at its peak, growing chances of disinflation resuming in 2Q24 and more balanced risks, the Fed is likely to remain cautious in determining the timing of a first rate cut.
In May, monthly inflation was 0.43% and annual inflation was 7.16%, close to market analysts' expectations, according to Banco de la República's survey (0.41%) and below our forecast (0.51%).
