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February 9, 2025
Colombia | Inflation remained at 5.2% for the third consecutive month
Monthly inflation in January was 0.94%, exceeding analysts' expectations (0.82% projected in the Central Bank of Colombia’s survey). As a result, the annual variation remained stable for the third consecutive month at approximately 5.22%.
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February 6, 2025
Mexico | Banxico speeds up easing pace, strikes a more dovish tone
It unequivocally signaled that it remains set to keep cutting rates steadily ahead and hinted that in the absence of any major events, it is likely to consider additional 50bp cuts at upcoming meetings.
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February 5, 2025
Mexico | With the tariff threat in pause, a 50bp rate cut now seems very likely
Below 4.0% inflation, easing core services inflation, softer aggregate demand, a cooling labor market, a peso that continues to hold up, and an overly restrictive monetary policy stance, keep the door wide open for a larger 50bp cut.
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February 3, 2025
Peru | The price level begins the year with a decline and surprises the market
The consumer price index contracted 0.09% m/m in January. The result for the month is mainly explained by the seasonal normalization after the end of the year holidays (price of poultry products and transportation rates). The interannual inflation rate was 1.9% in January.
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January 30, 2025
US | Fed pauses rate cuts to kick off 2025
Signs that core inflation is back on trend to 2% could open the door for another cut in March, but the implementation of policies that could spark an upward trend in inflation, even if temporary, could imply a more extended pause.
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January 28, 2025
US | Labor and Immigration Upheaval: Worker Shortages, Higher Wages?
Notwithstanding BBVA Research's assessment that widespread deportations are improbable and that significant deviations in migration trends —beyond those tied to economic cycles and labor demand— are unlikely, a chilling effect could nonetheless materialize.
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January 27, 2025
US | Fed to remain cautious as probable tariffs cast a shadow on monetary policy easing
The risk has grown that the Fed could keep rates on hold for more than one meeting as the nature and purpose of the upcoming tariffs is still unknown (i.e., their magnitude, their temporary or permanent nature, used mostly as a negotiating tool?).
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January 23, 2025
US | Market’s rate expectations remain broadly unchanged following Trump’s inauguration
Further easing of at most 50 bps by year-end is still on the table, but the Fed will likely stay on the sidelines while the uncertainty around renewed immigration policies lingers and until it knows if Trump follows through on his plans to impose tariffs.
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January 23, 2025
Türkiye | CBRT cut policy rate by another 250bps
The Central Bank (CBRT) lowered the policy rate by another rate cut of 250 bps to 45%, in line with market and our expectations. The bank also signaled that it may introduce new tools to sterilize the increasing excess TL liquidity in the market.
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January 14, 2025
Argentina | Inflation recorded 2.7% MoM in December and an annual rate of 117.8% for 2024
This aligns with market expectations, as outlined by BBVA (2.8%) and REM-BCRA (2.7%), and reflects a slight increase from November's rate of 2.4%. Consequently, the average price increase in the final quarter of the year was 2.6% MoM.
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