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BBVA Research

Industrial production latest publications

Türkiye | Supply conditions weaker than demand

Growth outlook remained weak, while the demand indicators point to a slower-than-desired correction. Considering tight financial conditions and the gradual moderation in domestic demand, we expect the economic growth to reach 3.2% in 2024 but downside risks are increasing on our 2.7% growth forecast for 2025.

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October 17, 2024

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Türkiye | Mild contraction signals in 3Q GDP

The moderation in domestic demand continues, while the production side demonstrates a clearer worsening trend in 3Q. We expect GDP growth to be 3.2% and retreat further to 2.7% on restrictive monetary policy, tight financial conditions and expected fiscal consolidation in 2025.

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September 24, 2024

Mexico | BBVA Research-AMPIP Survey, 2nd edition

BBVA Research and the Mexican Association of Private Industrial Parks (AMPIP) conducted the second edition of the survey to identify opportunities and challenges of nearshoring

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September 17, 2024

Türkiye | More deterioration in activity ahead

Economic activity continued to weaken on tighter financial conditions and demand may slow down further in 3Q. We have updated our 2024 growth forecast to 3.2% from 3.5% on base effects, and our 2025 growth forecast to 2.7% from 3.5% on the lagged impact of restrictive monetary stance and fiscal consolidation.

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August 14, 2024

Türkiye | Risks become tilted to downside on activity

Weak performance recorded in the economic activity in 2Q24, points to the higher-than-expected impact of bridge day effects. Excluding these effects, the contraction in activity becomes moderate but still higher than our expectation. We assess that the risks to our 3.5% growth forecast for 2024 start to be to the downside.

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July 19, 2024

Türkiye | Pending an effective rebalancing in activity

The economic activity decelerates further especially driven by the weakening in industry. Aggregate demand remains stronger than supply, keeping inflationary pressures alive. Risks would be on the upside for our 2024 GDP forecast of 3.5%, considering the strong performance in 1H24 and continuing supportive fiscal stance.

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June 19, 2024

China | An unbalanced economic structure with shrinking credit growth

China’s 2024 May economic activity indicators continue to display an unbalanced economic structure with strong supply and weak demand, although retail sales mildly picked up.

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June 13, 2024

Türkiye | Deceleration in economic activity in 2Q24

After the strong growth performance (2.4% q/q) in 1Q24, our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts 0-0.5% quarterly growth in 2Q24. Considering the strong performance of 1H24, risks start to be tilted slightly to the upside for our 2024 GDP forecast of 3.5%. Yet, lagged effects might put 2025 GDP growth under pressure.

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June 13, 2024

China Economic Outlook. June 2024

We summarize the recent development of the Chinese economy and highlight the unbalanced economic structure. Risks include the housing market, geopolitics, deflation and unbalanced economic structure. We also analyze the ongoing fiscal and monetary policy coordination to stimulate growth.

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May 7, 2024

Türkiye | No clear cooling sign in activity

Observing no clear signs of deceleration, we nowcast a quarterly GDP growth closer to 1.5% as of May. Given the current solid performance and the lagged impact of the expected tighter policies in 2H, we eliminate our previous slight downward bias and now assess the risks on our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 3.5% are balanced.

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March 15, 2024

Türkiye | Still solid domestic demand in 1Q24

After the strong growth performance in 2023 with 4.5% y/y, we nowcast an acceleration in GDP growth rates in 1Q24 with 5.5% annually as of March. We maintain our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 3.5% given the solid performance in 1Q, the pre-election fiscal impulse and expected capital inflows.

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March 7, 2024

China Economic Outlook. March 2024

We summarized the recent Chinese economic development as well as policy outlook in 2024. We also highlight the March 2024 "Two sessions".

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