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February 19, 2025
Mexico imposes temporary tariffs of 15 to 35% on 155 tariff items in the textile and clothing industry, modifies the Immex Decree to limit access in these sectors. Finally, it establishes a global rate of 19% on products imported through digital platforms from countries without a trade agreement, including China.
January 17, 2025
Incoming hard data points to a faster recovery in 4Q24 than our previous stagnant growth expectation on quarterly basis. We expect the GDP growth to reach around 3% in 2024 but acknowledge some upside risks recently emerge on our 2025 growth forecast of 2.5%.
November 20, 2024
Growth outlook remained weak, while the demand indicators point to a slower-than-desired correction. Considering tight financial conditions and the gradual moderation in domestic demand, we expect the economic growth to reach 3.2% in 2024 but downside risks are increasing on our 2.7% growth forecast for 2025.
October 17, 2024
The moderation in domestic demand continues, while the production side demonstrates a clearer worsening trend in 3Q. We expect GDP growth to be 3.2% and retreat further to 2.7% on restrictive monetary policy, tight financial conditions and expected fiscal consolidation in 2025.
September 17, 2024
Economic activity continued to weaken on tighter financial conditions and demand may slow down further in 3Q. We have updated our 2024 growth forecast to 3.2% from 3.5% on base effects, and our 2025 growth forecast to 2.7% from 3.5% on the lagged impact of restrictive monetary stance and fiscal consolidation.
August 14, 2024
Weak performance recorded in the economic activity in 2Q24, points to the higher-than-expected impact of bridge day effects. Excluding these effects, the contraction in activity becomes moderate but still higher than our expectation. We assess that the risks to our 3.5% growth forecast for 2024 start to be to the downside.
July 19, 2024
The economic activity decelerates further especially driven by the weakening in industry. Aggregate demand remains stronger than supply, keeping inflationary pressures alive. Risks would be on the upside for our 2024 GDP forecast of 3.5%, considering the strong performance in 1H24 and continuing supportive fiscal stance.
June 13, 2024
After the strong growth performance (2.4% q/q) in 1Q24, our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts 0-0.5% quarterly growth in 2Q24. Considering the strong performance of 1H24, risks start to be tilted slightly to the upside for our 2024 GDP forecast of 3.5%. Yet, lagged effects might put 2025 GDP growth under pressure.
June 13, 2024
We summarize the recent development of the Chinese economy and highlight the unbalanced economic structure. Risks include the housing market, geopolitics, deflation and unbalanced economic structure. We also analyze the ongoing fiscal and monetary policy coordination to stimulate growth.
May 7, 2024
Observing no clear signs of deceleration, we nowcast a quarterly GDP growth closer to 1.5% as of May. Given the current solid performance and the lagged impact of the expected tighter policies in 2H, we eliminate our previous slight downward bias and now assess the risks on our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 3.5% are balanced.
