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November 13, 2024
This is the lowest monthly value since November 2021, the last month in which monthly inflation started at 2. Prices are moving closer and closer to the official exchange rate peg, which is one of the government's main targets.
October 16, 2024
The European Central Bank (ECB) can take satisfaction from recent inflation data from the eurozone. Much of the downside surprise has been due to the drop in oil, but there is also some progress in services prices. Coupled with economic weakness, the scenario is a further interest rate cut.
July 23, 2024
The Central Bank kept the policy rate at 50% in line with expectations, maintaining a wait and see approach with a hawkish message. They highlight a potential temporary increase in monthly inflation in July, but expect the rise in the underlying inflation trend to be limited.
June 27, 2024
The Central Bank kept the policy rate at 50% in line with expectations. We expect that annual inflation will come down to 45-50% by September on base effects before ending the year at 43%. We believe that there would be only a limited room to start easing cycle very gradually in 4Q24 considering high inflation expectations.
May 24, 2024
The CBRT maintained the policy rate (50%) and the range between borrowing and lending rates (600 bps). They remain cautious about the risks on inflation outlook. On financial stability concerns, they aim to sterilize excess TL liquidity stemming from the most recent domestic and foreign demand for TL financial assets.
May 14, 2024
Monthly inflation had not reached values below 10% since October 2023; monthly core inflation (6.3% m/m, 292% y/y) was the lowest in 15 months, and is the key variable to monitor to measure the pace of disinflation in a context of correction of tariffs and other regulated prices.
May 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by 3.18% in April, parallel to our expectation of 3.1% and slightly lower than the consensus of 3.4%, which led to an annual inflation of 69.8%. Given the expectations of a tighter policy mix in the coming period, we acknowledge slight downside risk on our current year-end inflation forecast of 45%.
April 25, 2024
The CBRT kept the policy rate constant at 50% in line with market expectations. We expect the CBRT to remain tight for longer on high inflation expectations, which would start a sustained path to unwind current regulations and exit from the FC protected scheme to strengthen the monetary transmission mechanism.
April 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by 3.16% (68.5% y/y) in March, lower than both our expectation and consensus (3.5% and 3.6%, respectively). We expect annual consumer inflation to reach 45% by 2024 end under the assumption of 3.5% GDP growth in 2024, gradual currency depreciation and continuing demand restrictive policies.
March 21, 2024
The Central Bank (CBRT) surprised the markets and hiked the policy rate by 500 bps to 50%. They promised to tighten the stance further according to the inflation outlook and support the monetary transmission mechanism in case of unanticipated developments in credit growth and deposit rates.
March 4, 2024
Consumer prices rose by 4.53% in Feb, higher than our exp. and cons. (4.0% both), and annual inflation accelerated to 67.07% (64.86% prev.). Given the strong realizations in Jan. and Feb, we expect tighter financial conditions to be pursued in post-election period and maintain our 2024 year-end inflation expectation of 45%.
