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July 29, 2016
CPI flash estimate suggests that general consumer prices fell by -0.6% YoY in July, 0,2pp less than what was expected and to the fall of June. Our estimates suggest that energy is the only component that contributes negatively to inflation, while the growth in core prices would have remained stable at around 0.6% YoY.
June 29, 2016
CPI flash estimate signals that general consumer prices fell by -0,8% YoY in June, 0,2pp less than what was expected and to the fall in May. Our estimations suggest that energy is the only component that has a negative contribution on inflation, while growth in core prices should have remained stable at around 0,7% YoY.
June 14, 2016
In May inflation slowed its drop to -1% YoY, due mainly to a lower annual decrease of energy prices (-14% YoY). Meanwhile, core inflation remained stable at 0.7% YoY. Forward, we expect that these trends will continue: stability in core inflation and less downward pressure on energy inflation
May 31, 2016
Inflation increased by 0.1pp to -0.1% YoY in May, due to the moderation of falling energy prices and the increase in services inflation, which raised core inflation by 0.1pp to 0.8% YoY. We still see low and relatively stable core inflation, while oil prices will maintain headline inflation in negative territory or very low until summer.
May 30, 2016
CPI flash estimate points at a fall in general consumer prices in May of -1,0% YoY, 0.1pp lower than expected. The number is also smaller than the fall in the previous month. Our forecasts suggest that core inflation remained stable at 0,7% YoY, while energy was the only component that contributed negatively.
May 13, 2016
In April inflation rate of decline deepened to -1.1% YoY, as the increase in core inflation moderated to 0.7% YoY and the energy continued pushing down hard (-15 , 1% YoY). Forward, we expect the positive trend in the core component to be maintained, and that the pressure on the price of raw materials attenuate progressively
April 29, 2016
Inflation decreased by 0.2 pp to -0.2% YoY in April, due to the reduction in energy prices and the moderation in services inflation, which led core inflation to moderate to 0.8% YoY. This was expected given the significant increase in March due to calendar effects.
April 28, 2016
CPI flash estimate signals that general consumer prices fell in April by 1,1% YoY, which was more than expected and three percentage points bigger than in March. Our forecasts suggest that core inflation could have moderated in 0.2pp down to 0,9% YoY, and that energy is the only component that negatively contributes to inflation.
March 31, 2016
Inflation increased by 0.1 pp to -0.1% YoY in March, due to the significant rise of services prices, which resulted in an increase of core inflation to 0.9% YoY. Beyond the volatility of services prices during the last two months, we still expect subdued and stable core inflation, while oil prices will keep negative annual inflation rates until summer
March 31, 2016
CPI flash estimate signals that, improving on what was expected, general consumption prices fell by -0.8% interannually in March, as they did in February. Our estimations suggest that core inflation might have grown up to 1.1% interannually, while energy keeps pressuring prices downwards.
February 29, 2016
Inflation decreased by 0.5pp to -0.2% YoY in February, due to the intensification of falling energy prices and also the moderation in core inflation (-0,2pp) to 0.8% YoY. Recent developments in oil prices suggest that the negative annual rates could intensify in the coming months
January 29, 2016
Headline inflation increased by 0.2pp to 0.4% YoY in January, as expected, due to the moderation in the fall in energy prices, but also to the increase in core inflation (+0.1pp) to 1%, surprising somewhat to the upside. However, recent developments in oil prices suggests that inflation will moderate in February and could record slightly negative rates from March onwards.
