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February 24, 2025
So far, the impact of the Next Generation EU funds on investment and productivity has been less than expected. However, with a broad consensus and structural reforms, Spain should be able to realize its potential and consolidate more solid, sustainable, and productive growth.
February 17, 2025
GDP grew 4.9% y/y in December. By productive sectors, the primary component stood out (+9.0%) due to the strong expansion of the fishing sector and the advance of the agricultural sector. On the non-primary component side, it grew 3.3%. With the December result, GDP grew 4.2% in Q4 and 3.3% in 2024.
February 17, 2025
GDP grew 1.7% in 2024, led by domestic demand (+2.2%). Private consumption (1.6%) was driven by a rebound in durable goods and services, while fixed investment (3.0%) grew due to machinery, equipment, and civil works. In 2025, growth is expected at 2.5%, with better financial conditions but fiscal and global risks.
February 5, 2025
In 2024, the Spanish economy showed positive dynamics driven by domestic consumption and tourism, which also introduced heterogeneity in regional developments. As a result, Mediterranean regions and the islands were generally the ones leading growth once again last year.
February 4, 2025
Asturias' GDP growth could reach 2.5% in 2024 and will continue with an increase of 2.0% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. This momentum will be supported by domestic demand and tourism, helped by falling inflation and interest rates and rising wages and employment.
January 29, 2025
Activity grew again by 0.8% q/q in 4Q24, driven by domestic demand despite weak net external demand. GDP growth was supported by an increase in hours worked, as productivity declined. Overall, GDP expanded by 3.2% in 2024, exceeding forecasts.
January 29, 2025
The reactivation of the economy after the dana and the measures approved justify that in 2025 and 2026 growth could reach 2.7% if the aid arrives quickly and reaches the announced amount. Domestic demand will be supported by the fall in inflation and interest rates and by the increase in wages and employment.
January 23, 2025
In 2024, growth is revised upwards due to the boost in domestic consumption and tourism. The end of the drought, the improvement of the European economy, and the reduction of interest rates will help sustain growth, affected by the impact of the dana and possible changes in tariff policy in the US.
January 17, 2025
Incoming hard data points to a faster recovery in 4Q24 than our previous stagnant growth expectation on quarterly basis. We expect the GDP growth to reach around 3% in 2024 but acknowledge some upside risks recently emerge on our 2025 growth forecast of 2.5%.
January 15, 2025
Activity advanced 3.9% year-on-year in November. By productive sectors, the primary component stood out, and within this the growth of the fishing sector stands out, which is due to the greater extraction of anchovy. This also had a significant positive impact on primary manufacturing, which processes this resource.
December 23, 2024
Activity returned to strong growth in the third quarter (0.8% YoY), driven by domestic demand. Consumption offset the sluggishness of investment and net external demand, which made a negative contribution to growth. GDP growth was driven by productivity, as hours worked grew by only 0.2%.
December 18, 2024
The GDP growth for 2023 published today by the INE is consistent with the scenario published by BBVA Research, which anticipated that the leadership would be located in the island regions. However, forecast errors were higher in some regions, such as La Rioja, Madrid, Catalonia and Aragon.
