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December 23, 2024
Activity returned to strong growth in the third quarter (0.8% YoY), driven by domestic demand. Consumption offset the sluggishness of investment and net external demand, which made a negative contribution to growth. GDP growth was driven by productivity, as hours worked grew by only 0.2%.
December 18, 2024
The GDP growth for 2023 published today by the INE is consistent with the scenario published by BBVA Research, which anticipated that the leadership would be located in the island regions. However, forecast errors were higher in some regions, such as La Rioja, Madrid, Catalonia and Aragon.
December 16, 2024
Activity advanced 3.4% year-on-year in October. By productive sectors, the behavior of the non-primary component of GDP stood out, which registered an expansion of 4.2% and within this the sustained improvement of non-primary manufacturing (greater manufacturing of consumer and capital goods), construction and trade.
December 4, 2024
Growth will be around 3% for the third consecutive year in 2024, but a slowdown ahead is likely, driven by a less supportive global environment and higher-than-anticipated SELIC rates. The balance of risks has recently worsened, reflecting global factors and rising concerns over fiscal imbalances.
December 2, 2024
We expect US protectionism to fuel uncertainty, and pressure global growth downwards and inflation upwards. In Türkiye, soft landing efforts remain on growth and employment outlook, increasing the downside risks on public spending cuts. Monetary policy communication becomes less hawkish and signals an easing cycle soon.
November 29, 2024
Turkish economy experienced a mild recession, in line with our expectations, contracting by 0.2% q/q in 3Q24 (vs. -0.2% q/q in 2Q24) and posting 2.1 y/y growth. Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts point to a weak quarterly GDP growth for 4Q24, which could result nearly 3% y/y in 2024.
November 28, 2024
We keep our GDP growth forecast for 2024 unchanged at 1.2%, and 1.0% for 2025; the favorable impact of economic activity in 2H24 is offset by lower exports and investment in the face of new tariffs next year.
November 22, 2024
Colombia's GDP grew 2.0% year-on-year in Q3 2024, driven by investment in civil works and machinery, though with moderate private consumption and a decline in public consumption. Growth is projected at 2.0% for 2024, with gradual acceleration in 2025, led by investment and goods consumption.
November 20, 2024
Growth outlook remained weak, while the demand indicators point to a slower-than-desired correction. Considering tight financial conditions and the gradual moderation in domestic demand, we expect the economic growth to reach 3.2% in 2024 but downside risks are increasing on our 2.7% growth forecast for 2025.
