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March 25, 2025
In 2025, GDP is expected to grow by 5.5%, driven by consumption and investment, within a context of disinflationary consolidation and fiscal-monetary discipline. However, two key challenges remain: maintaining fiscal austerity during an election year and making significant progress in normalizing the foreign exchange market
March 20, 2025
In February, formal employment in Mexico slowed down due to uncertainty stemming from potential U.S. tariffs, negatively impacting business and consumer expectations. Nevertheless, real wages and the real wage bill continue to support consumption.
February 12, 2025
Formal employment began 2025 with a 0.8% increase, adding 73 thousand new positions—87.1% of which were temporary—reflecting the trend observed since last year. Despite the slowdown in job creation, real wages continue to grow above the average, supporting consumption.
January 14, 2025
Formal employment closed the year with an annual variation of 1.0%, well below expectations and the average of the last three years. Sectors such as manufacturing and construction performed poorly or negatively, playing key roles in this sharp slowdown.
December 12, 2024
... with only 24.7 thousand new jobs, the lowest level in two decades, with an annual growth of 1.0%. The weakness in employment, expected by the end of the year, has been confirmed by the results, specifically in November, which recorded the second-lowest job creation since 1997.
November 28, 2024
We keep our GDP growth forecast for 2024 unchanged at 1.2%, and 1.0% for 2025; the favorable impact of economic activity in 2H24 is offset by lower exports and investment in the face of new tariffs next year.
November 12, 2024
The weakness in employment, observed since the beginning of the year, has intensified more than expected due to factors such as the closure of federal infrastructure projects and political and economic uncertainty. In October, formal employment grew by 1.4%, falling 0.3 percentage points short of expectations.
October 16, 2024
Formal employment grew by 1.6% in September. Despite the increase, the growth was lower than expected, reflecting a more significant slowdown and worsening short- and medium-term employment expectations, influenced by the country's anticipated lower economic growth and uncertainty.
September 12, 2024
Employment continues to slow down, with minimal monthly increases. According to the IMSS, formal employment grew by 1.8% annually in August, 0.2 points less than in June and July. Seasonally adjusted job creation has shown three months of 0.1% variations, reflecting weakness in annual variations.
August 23, 2024
Formal employment grew by 2.0% year-on-year in July, similar to the previous month but 0.2 percentage points below the forecast. A moderate improvement is expected in the coming months. Permanent employment has shown resilience, with 322 thousand new positions this year.
