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October 8, 2024
In September, monthly inflation was 0.24% and annual inflation was 5.81%, close to market analysts' expectations, according to Banco de la República's survey (0.27%). With this, the result is 31 bps below the previous month's figure.
September 7, 2024
In August, monthly inflation was 0.00% and annual inflation was 6.12%, surprisingly well below market analysts' expectations according to Banco de la República's survey (0.24%). With this, the result is 74 bps below the previous month's figure and accelerates the pace of adjustments of previous months.
August 9, 2024
In July, monthly inflation was 0.20% and annual inflation was 6.86%, close to market analysts' expectations, according to Banco de la República's survey (0.28%) and our forecast (0.24%). With this, the result is 32 bps below the previous month's figure.
July 9, 2024
In June, monthly inflation was 0.32%, and annual inflation was 7.18%, slightly higher than the previous month's figure. The result was close to the expectations of market analysts who, according to Banco de la República's survey, expected a monthly variation of 0.28%.
June 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by 3.37% m/m in May, higher than expectations (3.1% consensus and 3% ours), leading the annual inflation to rise to 75.45%. We expect inflation to decline faster in 2H24 on favorable base effects and reach 43% at the year end.
May 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by 3.18% in April, parallel to our expectation of 3.1% and slightly lower than the consensus of 3.4%, which led to an annual inflation of 69.8%. Given the expectations of a tighter policy mix in the coming period, we acknowledge slight downside risk on our current year-end inflation forecast of 45%.
April 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by 3.16% (68.5% y/y) in March, lower than both our expectation and consensus (3.5% and 3.6%, respectively). We expect annual consumer inflation to reach 45% by 2024 end under the assumption of 3.5% GDP growth in 2024, gradual currency depreciation and continuing demand restrictive policies.
March 4, 2024
Consumer prices rose by 4.53% in Feb, higher than our exp. and cons. (4.0% both), and annual inflation accelerated to 67.07% (64.86% prev.). Given the strong realizations in Jan. and Feb, we expect tighter financial conditions to be pursued in post-election period and maintain our 2024 year-end inflation expectation of 45%.
February 5, 2024
Consumer prices rose by 6.70% in January, higher than our expectation (5.7%) but parallel to the consensus (6.6%) and annual consumer inflation accelerated slightly to 64.86% (vs. 64.77 prev.). We eliminate our previous downward bias and now expect consumer inflation to slow down to 45% by end 2024.
January 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by 2.93% m/m in Dec, lower than our expectation (3.3%) and consensus (3.0%) and annual CPI accelerated to 64.77% (vs. 61.98% prev.). We expect 2024 year-end consumer inflation to reach 45%, though recent improvement in inflation trend and potentially stable currency pose downward risk on our forecast.
December 4, 2023
Consumer prices rose by 3.28% m/m in Nov, lower than both our expectation (4.0%) and cons. (3.7%), while annual inflation accelerated to 61.98% (vs. 61.36% prev.). Considering the recent lower than expected realizations coupled with the positively surprising rate hikes, the year-end consumer inflation might be around 65%.
