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January 3, 2025
Consumer prices rose by %1.03 m/m in December, lower than consensus and our expectations (both at 1.6%), leading year-end annual inflation to reach 44.4%. We maintain our year-end 2025 inflation forecasts of 26.5% on a more balanced risk outlook.
December 7, 2024
In November, monthly inflation was 0.27%, with an annual rate of 5.20%, consistent with our expectations and closely aligned with market analysts’ projections, which, according to the Central Bank of Colombia's survey, anticipated a monthly variation of 0.21%. This result is 21 basis points below the previous month's figure
December 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by %2.24 m/m in November, higher than consensus (2.0%), with no improvement in the underlying inflation trend. Considering November realizations, we evaluate annual consumer inflation is likely to finish the year at around 45% and decline to 26.5% in 2025 on our assumption of an effective policy mix.
October 8, 2024
In September, monthly inflation was 0.24% and annual inflation was 5.81%, close to market analysts' expectations, according to Banco de la República's survey (0.27%). With this, the result is 31 bps below the previous month's figure.
September 7, 2024
In August, monthly inflation was 0.00% and annual inflation was 6.12%, surprisingly well below market analysts' expectations according to Banco de la República's survey (0.24%). With this, the result is 74 bps below the previous month's figure and accelerates the pace of adjustments of previous months.
August 9, 2024
In July, monthly inflation was 0.20% and annual inflation was 6.86%, close to market analysts' expectations, according to Banco de la República's survey (0.28%) and our forecast (0.24%). With this, the result is 32 bps below the previous month's figure.
July 9, 2024
In June, monthly inflation was 0.32%, and annual inflation was 7.18%, slightly higher than the previous month's figure. The result was close to the expectations of market analysts who, according to Banco de la República's survey, expected a monthly variation of 0.28%.
June 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by 3.37% m/m in May, higher than expectations (3.1% consensus and 3% ours), leading the annual inflation to rise to 75.45%. We expect inflation to decline faster in 2H24 on favorable base effects and reach 43% at the year end.
May 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by 3.18% in April, parallel to our expectation of 3.1% and slightly lower than the consensus of 3.4%, which led to an annual inflation of 69.8%. Given the expectations of a tighter policy mix in the coming period, we acknowledge slight downside risk on our current year-end inflation forecast of 45%.
April 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by 3.16% (68.5% y/y) in March, lower than both our expectation and consensus (3.5% and 3.6%, respectively). We expect annual consumer inflation to reach 45% by 2024 end under the assumption of 3.5% GDP growth in 2024, gradual currency depreciation and continuing demand restrictive policies.
March 4, 2024
Consumer prices rose by 4.53% in Feb, higher than our exp. and cons. (4.0% both), and annual inflation accelerated to 67.07% (64.86% prev.). Given the strong realizations in Jan. and Feb, we expect tighter financial conditions to be pursued in post-election period and maintain our 2024 year-end inflation expectation of 45%.
