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November 21, 2018
The recovery of growth in Latin America continues to be very uneven. We are simultaneously dealing with the impact of the Argentine exchange rate crisis, the uncertainty generated by the reforms of the new government in Brazil and the mixed news coming out of Mexico. By contrast, the Andean countries are accelerating thanks to the recovery of internal demand.
November 5, 2018
The recovery of growth in Latin America continues to be very uneven. We are witnessing at the same time the impact of the currency crisis in Argentina and uncertainty over how far-reaching the new Brazilian government’s tax and pension reforms will be. On the other hand the Andean countries continue to accelerate, driven by the recovery in domestic demand.
May 11, 2017
Activity indicators suggest that the economy started to grow again in 1Q17 after having contracted for eight consecutive quarters. We expect GDP to grow by 0.9% in 2017 and by 1.8% in 2018. The approval of a social security reform would allow the government to adjust public expenditure and meet the new fiscal rule, and therefore to consolidate the prospects of recovery.
November 7, 2016
We continue to expect Brazil’s GDP to contract by 3.0% in 2016 and then grow 0.9% in 2017. While recent data show that the risks for growth in 2016 are tilted to the downside, the approval of the project to impose a cap on fiscal expenditure could trigger a faster-than-expected recovery from 2017 on.
