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December 19, 2024
Fiscal consolidation is expected to accelerate in the final quarter of the year, bringing the public deficit closer to 3.0% of GDP. Fiscal adjustment in 2025 and 2026 will depend on the implementation of the new fiscal rules and the effectiveness of tax measures.
December 10, 2024
The economic recovery and the good financial context, within a framework of fiscal balance and monetary discipline, show that the worst of the crisis is over. Society maintains its support for the government, giving it room to address the challenges of fiscal balance sustainability and FX market flexibilization.
December 4, 2024
Growth will be around 3% for the third consecutive year in 2024, but a slowdown ahead is likely, driven by a less supportive global environment and higher-than-anticipated SELIC rates. The balance of risks has recently worsened, reflecting global factors and rising concerns over fiscal imbalances.
October 1, 2024
The government maintains a firm commitment to fiscal balance while upholding a "zero monetary issuance" policy for all items arising from the public sector. The slowdown in inflation has stalled since May, remaining around 4% monthly, and economic activity shows signs that the recession may have ended in Q2 2024.
August 16, 2024
A fiscal consolidation that would imply a public deficit of 3.0% of GDP (-3.5% of PSBR) is expected for next year, which would occur with a primary surplus and financial cost of 0.4% and 3.4% of GDP, respectively.
May 14, 2024
The CBRT signals to remain tight as long as needed, while new fiscal measures signal that the policy mix will be more coordinated. Considering the lagged impact of policies, we believe macro-prudential measures to contain still solid consumption would be needed.
February 15, 2024
72.7 billion euros, 91% of the planned total, has been approved over the lifetime of the Recovery Plan, but only around 33.5 billion (42% of the planned amount) have been resolved. In total, it is estimated that the funds would be reaching more than 500,000 businesses and families.
January 19, 2024
Given that one of the most relevant factors for the dynamism of the external motor of the Mexican economy will be the unfolding of interest rates in the US, the possibility of more inflationary persistence in that country could decelerate the external motor more than anticipated.
January 2, 2024
Inflation peaked in 2022 before easing considerably in 2023 in most economies. For instance, the average inflation rate in the United States dropped from 8.0% in 2022 to around 4.1% in 2023, while in the eurozone it fell from 8.4% to nearly 5.6%.
October 30, 2023
Two weeks ago, the private sector walked away from the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund in Marrakech less worried than a year earlier, but with three lingering concerns: inflation and interest rates going forward, low global growth and the complex geostrategic environment.
October 19, 2023
The Autonomous Committee of the Fiscal Rule -CARF- made a public debt projection tool available to the public and, prior to its publication, BBVA Research served as a pilot test of its use. This presentation contains comments from BBVA Research on the tool. Others were already incorporated in the tool.
