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The intensity of political events, in a year plagued by key elections in many regions of the world, as well as two ongoing armed conflicts, contrast with the resilience of the global economy.
The CBRT signals to remain tight as long as needed, while new fiscal measures signal that the policy mix will be more coordinated. Considering the lagged impact of policies, we believe macro-prudential measures to contain still solid consumption would be needed.
72.7 billion euros, 91% of the planned total, has been approved over the lifetime of the Recovery Plan, but only around 33.5 billion (42% of the planned amount) have been resolved. In total, it is estimated that the funds would be reaching more…
Given that one of the most relevant factors for the dynamism of the external motor of the Mexican economy will be the unfolding of interest rates in the US, the possibility of more inflationary persistence in that country could decelerate the e…
Inflation peaked in 2022 before easing considerably in 2023 in most economies. For instance, the average inflation rate in the United States dropped from 8.0% in 2022 to around 4.1% in 2023, while in the eurozone it fell from 8.4% to nearly 5.6…
Two weeks ago, the private sector walked away from the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund in Marrakech less worried than a year earlier, but with three lingering concerns: inflation and interest rates going forward, low global growth and the complex geostrategic environment.
The Autonomous Committee of the Fiscal Rule -CARF- made a public debt projection tool available to the public and, prior to its publication, BBVA Research served as a pilot test of its use. This presentation contains comments from BBVA Research on the tool. Others were already incorporated in the tool.
Pro-cyclical policies and threats to the viability of the eurozone are two obstacles that are best avoided as we move forward. What’s left of the fiscal consolidation process is certainly significant and there should first be a consensus on how…
The central reflection when analyzing the fiscal package for 2024 is that Mexico needs a fiscal rule. A public deficit of 4.9% of GDP is proposed for 2024, which, if materialized, will be the highest since 1990.
Chinese economy slowed down in Q2 amid housing crash and deflation expectation. We expect the economy could bottom out in the rest of year with the help of policy support.
Once again, a critical date in the U.S. fiscal calendar is approaching. If Congress does not approve an increase in the federal government's budget by September 30, the executive branch will be forced to enact a shutdown on October 1.
The central government has subsidized the interest payable by the regional governments by guaranteeing them interest rates below what they would have paid had they borrowed on the market. The higher the debt incurred, the larger the transfer from central to regional government.
