Financial Economics and Central Banks
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January 30, 2025
Europe | The direction is clear: more cuts to come
The ECB adopted a relatively dovish stance today while implementing the widely expected rate cut, signaling the possibility of further reductions without committing to a specific terminal level. This approach aligns with the continued progress in disinflation and the subdued momentum of the Eurozone economy.
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December 20, 2024
Colombia | Banco de la Republica reduced its policy rate by 25 bp to 9.50%
The Board of Banrep reduced its monetary policy rate by 25 bps, bringing it to 9.50%. This decision was split: 5 members in favor of the 25 bp reduction, one in favor of a 50 bp reduction and one in favor of a 75 bp reduction. This is an important change in the Board's stance, after 6 meetings with rate cuts of 50bp.
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November 1, 2024
Colombia | Banco de la Republica reduced its policy rate by 50 bp to 9.75%
The Board of Banrep reduced its monetary policy rate by 50 bps, bringing it to 9.75%. This decision was split, with 4 members in favor of the 50 bp reduction and three members voting for a larger reduction of 75 bp. The balance reached at the last meeting remain unchanged.
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October 1, 2024
Colombia | Banco de la Republica reduced its policy rate by 50 bp to 10.25%
The Board of Banrep reduced its monetary policy rate by 50 bps, bringing it to 10.25%. This decision was split, with 4 members favoring the 50 bp reduction and three members voting for a larger reduction of 75 bp.
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July 18, 2024
Europe | The decision for a September rate cut is wide open
As expected, the ECB leaves its monetary policy unchanged and leaves the door open for a rate cut at the next meeting in September, awaiting for more data on wages, profit margins and productivity that confirm its inflation outlook.
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March 7, 2024
Europe | The ECB paving the way for a June cut
This meeting further supports the expectation of an initial rate cut in June in line with our forecasts. The updated projections match our own. Nevertheless, the ECB needs to verify that core inflation, particularly from services and consequently wages, moderates as expected.
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February 23, 2024
Mexico | Economic Agenda Mexico - United States 2024
This Agenda presents the 2024 dissemination schedule for economic indicators and relevant monetary policy events in Mexico and the US; dates of important events such as the meetings of various relevant international entities such as: World Economic Forum, World Bank and the IMF
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February 9, 2024
Colombia | BanRep lowers rates through the staris, market rates take the lift
When the central bank initiates a rate reduction cycle, all eyes are focused on commercial banks and how market rates adjust. So far, market rates have fallen significantly more than those of the BanRep.
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January 25, 2024
Europe | The ECB does not close the door to early rate cuts
All in all, today's ECB meeting did not provide much new information. As anticipated, no change in interest rates was decided. The focus was on the ECB's tone about the timing of initial rate cuts. The conveyed message was relatively dovish, with Lagarde not ruling out an early cut
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July 27, 2023
Europe | Hike or pause in September, question not resolved
Our forecast still leans towards a further rate hike in September (reaching a terminal rate of 4% for the deposit rate); however, recent data weaknesses and ECB communications before and during the meeting have increased the likelihood of a potential pause and the possibility of no further hikes.
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