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September 26, 2024

US | Limited room for long-term yields to fall further if a soft landing remains in sight

Long-term yields have ceased from being driven by changes in inflation compensation, but they could decline markedly if markets begin to price in that the Fed will need to lower rates below neutral to avoid a recession.

August 22, 2024

US | The Treasury market prices in the Fed is likely behind the curve

July’s meeting minutes confirmed a Fed’s dovish shift, with "a vast majority" of FOMC officials observing that "it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting."

August 1, 2024

US | A rate cut “could be on the table” at the September meeting

The Fed is finally explicitly acknowledging that risks are broadly balanced: it is now “attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate,” rather than “highly attentive to inflation risks.”

July 29, 2024

US | Summer brings "good data" to the Fed; enough for a strong dovish shift?

Following reassuring inflation data in the inter-meeting period, FOMC members likely regained some confidence in the disinflationary process. FOMC participants might be inclined to suggest a September rate cut, but a strong signal at Jackson Hole next month is more likely.