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November 8, 2024
We continue to think that the rate cut cycle still has legs, but following the outcome of the election the Fed will likely end the cycle sooner than previously thought on greater inflationary challenges under Trump’s potential policies.
November 5, 2024
FOMC members will likely continue to signal that their plan continues to be a gradual normalization of the fed funds rate. They are likely to agree to continue normalizing the monetary stance with more cautious 25bp rate cuts.
October 24, 2024
The market is far from having ruled out the possibility of further rate cuts though. Upcoming jobs and inflation data are likely to favor the view that the economy is expanding at a healthy pace rather than overheating, potentially leading to a modest decline in long-term yields.
September 26, 2024
Long-term yields have ceased from being driven by changes in inflation compensation, but they could decline markedly if markets begin to price in that the Fed will need to lower rates below neutral to avoid a recession.
September 19, 2024
Fed’s quest to preserve the soft landing began today: it unequivocally confirmed that its focus has shifted to the labor market. It doesn’t look overly concerned about a hard landing, but rather signals its commitment “not to get behind” during the rate cut cycle.
September 17, 2024
Fed’s focus has shifted to the labor market and, in view of monetary policy lags, achieving a soft landing is now its main worry. This means the FOMC will not wait for weak labor market conditions before softening the policy stance.
August 1, 2024
The Fed is finally explicitly acknowledging that risks are broadly balanced: it is now “attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate,” rather than “highly attentive to inflation risks.”
July 29, 2024
Following reassuring inflation data in the inter-meeting period, FOMC members likely regained some confidence in the disinflationary process. FOMC participants might be inclined to suggest a September rate cut, but a strong signal at Jackson Hole next month is more likely.
July 25, 2024
The futures market is almost fully pricing in that the Fed will cut rates by 50 bps this year (95% implied chances) and continue to anticipate roughly 100 bps worth of rate cuts next year. Markets are certain of a rate cut in September, but are also likely pricing in risks in the event of a Trump’s second term.
June 27, 2024
Mid- and long-term Treasury yields eased further from their late-April’s highs on a less hawkish than expected Fed in this month’s meeting, and fresh signs that the inflation jump in 1Q will prove transitory.
June 13, 2024
With the fed funds rate at its peak, growing chances of disinflation resuming in 2Q24 and more balanced risks, the Fed is likely to remain cautious in determining the timing of a first rate cut.
