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December 19, 2024
With “the story of why inflation should be coming down [...] still intact,” the main reason behind today’s hawkish shift is likely the growing concern around the potential inflationary impact of Trump’s proposed trade, fiscal, and immigration policies.
December 16, 2024
Although they will continue to formally stay out of the debate around Trump 2.0, it is likely that several FOMC participants have begun to incorporate into their thinking some of the obvious effects of potential trade, fiscal and immigration policies.
November 28, 2024
Part of the rise in Treasury yields is also explained by a higher term premium, which has likely been driven by greater uncertainty around the US inflation and fiscal outlook in the following years amid Trump’s potential trade, tax and migration policies.
November 8, 2024
We continue to think that the rate cut cycle still has legs, but following the outcome of the election the Fed will likely end the cycle sooner than previously thought on greater inflationary challenges under Trump’s potential policies.
November 5, 2024
FOMC members will likely continue to signal that their plan continues to be a gradual normalization of the fed funds rate. They are likely to agree to continue normalizing the monetary stance with more cautious 25bp rate cuts.
October 24, 2024
The market is far from having ruled out the possibility of further rate cuts though. Upcoming jobs and inflation data are likely to favor the view that the economy is expanding at a healthy pace rather than overheating, potentially leading to a modest decline in long-term yields.
September 26, 2024
Long-term yields have ceased from being driven by changes in inflation compensation, but they could decline markedly if markets begin to price in that the Fed will need to lower rates below neutral to avoid a recession.
September 19, 2024
Fed’s quest to preserve the soft landing began today: it unequivocally confirmed that its focus has shifted to the labor market. It doesn’t look overly concerned about a hard landing, but rather signals its commitment “not to get behind” during the rate cut cycle.
September 17, 2024
Fed’s focus has shifted to the labor market and, in view of monetary policy lags, achieving a soft landing is now its main worry. This means the FOMC will not wait for weak labor market conditions before softening the policy stance.
August 1, 2024
The Fed is finally explicitly acknowledging that risks are broadly balanced: it is now “attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate,” rather than “highly attentive to inflation risks.”
