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December 27, 2024
US | The yield curve is pricing in more uncertainty around inflation next year
All but one FOMC member voted last week to continue removing monetary policy restriction through a 25bp cut, but the Fed also signaled a slower pace of further adjustments due to the incipient but increased uncertainty about inflation next year.
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December 19, 2024
US | Fed cuts rates by 25 bps, but signals a more hawkish pace going forward
With “the story of why inflation should be coming down [...] still intact,” the main reason behind today’s hawkish shift is likely the growing concern around the potential inflationary impact of Trump’s proposed trade, fiscal, and immigration policies.
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December 16, 2024
US | Fed likely remains confident enough to keep cutting rates at a 25bp pace
Although they will continue to formally stay out of the debate around Trump 2.0, it is likely that several FOMC participants have begun to incorporate into their thinking some of the obvious effects of potential trade, fiscal and immigration policies.
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November 28, 2024
US | Treasury yields edge higher as disinflation hits another bump on the road
Part of the rise in Treasury yields is also explained by a higher term premium, which has likely been driven by greater uncertainty around the US inflation and fiscal outlook in the following years amid Trump’s potential trade, tax and migration policies.
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November 8, 2024
US | Fed takes “another step in reducing the degree of policy restraint”
We continue to think that the rate cut cycle still has legs, but following the outcome of the election the Fed will likely end the cycle sooner than previously thought on greater inflationary challenges under Trump’s potential policies.
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November 5, 2024
US | Fed set to slow the pace of rate cuts to 25 bps
FOMC members will likely continue to signal that their plan continues to be a gradual normalization of the fed funds rate. They are likely to agree to continue normalizing the monetary stance with more cautious 25bp rate cuts.
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October 24, 2024
US | Treasury yields rebound as hard-landing chances drop off the radar
The market is far from having ruled out the possibility of further rate cuts though. Upcoming jobs and inflation data are likely to favor the view that the economy is expanding at a healthy pace rather than overheating, potentially leading to a modest decline in long-term yields.
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September 26, 2024
US | Limited room for long-term yields to fall further if a soft landing remains in sight
Long-term yields have ceased from being driven by changes in inflation compensation, but they could decline markedly if markets begin to price in that the Fed will need to lower rates below neutral to avoid a recession.
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September 19, 2024
US | Fed starts big, but points to smaller rate cuts ahead
Fed’s quest to preserve the soft landing began today: it unequivocally confirmed that its focus has shifted to the labor market. It doesn’t look overly concerned about a hard landing, but rather signals its commitment “not to get behind” during the rate cut cycle.
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September 17, 2024
US | The quest for a soft landing begins
Fed’s focus has shifted to the labor market and, in view of monetary policy lags, achieving a soft landing is now its main worry. This means the FOMC will not wait for weak labor market conditions before softening the policy stance.
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