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December 4, 2024
The Peruvian economy will grow 3,1% in 2024, 0,2pp more than expected in October. The revision mainly reflects the third quarter positive surprise. For 2025 we expect a 2,7% expansion, amid a challenging external context, but also when large infrastructure projects will begin construction.
January 29, 2024
Remittances are a hugely important international monetary flow. The World Bank estimates that they will grow by more than 3% in 2024 to reach $887 billion. To put things in perspective, this is more than the annual Gross Domestic Product of countries such as Switzerland, Poland, Argentina, Thailand or Egypt.
September 8, 2023
The current account deficit reached USD 2,525 million in the second quarter and represented 3% of GDP, decreasing by 49% with respect to the value recorded in the second quarter of 2022. The deficit reduction was driven by the adjustment in the trade balance.
December 14, 2022
The main macroeconomic imbalances, specially the fiscal one, have been curbed in the second half of 2022 after the change of Economy Minister. It will be crucial to maintain this dynamic during the next election year. The current drought entails a severe risk for the agricultural sector and the exports of 2023.
May 17, 2022
A series of global and domestic macro fundamentals drove recent sharp RMB depreciation. We do not think it will lead to systematic financial instability risk as it is synchronized with depreciation of other currencies amid FED tightening measures. The PBoC has counter-cyclical tools to maintain the RMB exchange rate stable.
February 16, 2021
Associated with the change in fundamental saving and investment variables that the Colombian economy has undergone in the recent decade, the structural current account and exchange rate are estimated in light of these changes. Likewise, forecasts are made for these variables up to December 2023.
February 1, 2021
This report is trying to answer the three questions: What is the underlying logic of the ongoing RMB appreciation trend? Is the trend sustainable as the global economy normalizes? And where will the RMB exchange rate go at end-2021?
August 9, 2019
The recent sharp depreciation of the RMB is unlikely to lead to financial turmoil like in 2015: the authorities kept the currency’s pricing mechanism intact and have accumulated valuable experience over the past few years; moreover, the PBoC still maintain a tight grip of the country’s capital account.
